TLDR
- Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating with a $239 price objective for SpaceX (SPCX) following China’s successful Long March 10B booster recovery
- SPCX shares declined approximately 4% Monday, hovering around $145.30, approaching its 52-week low
- While China’s booster recovery arrived six months sooner than anticipated, the nation hasn’t yet proven booster reusability
- SpaceX has successfully reused Falcon 9 boosters for almost ten years and executed 165 launches in the previous year
- Wall Street’s consensus price target for SPCX stands at $246.43, representing 76% potential upside from present levels
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) stock tumbled approximately 4% during Monday’s opening session, hovering near $145.30, dangerously close to its 52-week low point. The decline followed China’s weekend announcement confirming the successful retrieval of a Long March 10B rocket booster.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Despite the market reaction, Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned remained unfazed by the development. He maintained his Outperform rating alongside a $239 price objective for SPCX, pointing to more than 70% potential appreciation from current trading levels.
The analyst had just established his Buy rating on SPCX the previous week. Monday’s research note reinforced that bullish stance.
On July 10, China successfully recovered the Long March 10B first-stage booster utilizing an offshore platform during a test that invited direct comparisons to SpaceX’s proven Falcon 9 booster recovery operations. The achievement represented meaningful advancement in China’s reusable rocket development efforts.
While Harned recognized the accomplishment, he provided important perspective. Though the landing occurred approximately six months earlier than his projections anticipated, he believes the technological gap separating China from SpaceX remains substantial.
China’s Advancement vs. SpaceX’s Proven Experience
The critical difference Harned emphasizes: China has successfully landed a booster, but hasn’t yet relaunched one. Those represent fundamentally different achievements.
SpaceX has been recovering and relaunching Falcon 9 boosters for nearly a full decade. Throughout 2025, the company executed 165 launches. Such operational frequency stems from years of validated reusability, far beyond a single successful recovery.
For China to match that cadence, it would need to prove reliable relaunch capabilities and expand production capacity. Harned views this as a challenge requiring multiple years at minimum.
A notable hardware distinction exists as well. The Long March 10 can only reuse its first stage component. SpaceX’s Starship architecture aims for complete reusability — both stages — although that functionality hasn’t been entirely validated yet either.
Analyst Community Remains Overwhelmingly Positive on SPCX
Looking beyond Bernstein, numerous analysts have issued bullish outlooks since SpaceX’s public offering.
Raymond James established the Street’s highest target at $800, indicating roughly 440% upside potential. Deutsche Bank launched coverage with a Buy recommendation and $255 target. Macquarie and Clear Street both assigned Outperform and Buy ratings respectively, featuring targets of $250 and $217.
According to TipRanks, the consensus rating stands at Strong Buy, comprising 22 Buy recommendations, four Hold ratings, and one Sell. The Street’s average price objective of $246.43 suggests a 76% rally from Monday’s share price.
Meanwhile, China continues advancing its broader space initiatives rapidly. The country has submitted ITU filings for deploying over 200,000 satellites into low Earth orbit and is constructing a lunar research station.
Even with these ambitious plans, SPCX stock’s average analyst target remains more than $100 above its current trading range.
