Key Takeaways
- Guggenheim upgraded its price target for LLY to $1,273 from $1,235 while keeping a Buy rating
- The stock is currently trading near $1,189, representing a 51% gain over the last twelve months
- Analyst projects Q2 revenue at $20.66 billion, surpassing the Street estimate of $20.55 billion
- Foundayo, the company’s obesity pill, is expected to gain momentum following June’s consumer marketing push
- Probability of success for next-generation weight-loss candidate retatrutide increased to 85%, with projected annual sales of $25 billion by 2035
Guggenheim’s Seamus Fernandez updated his price target for Eli Lilly stock this Monday, lifting it to $1,273 from a previous $1,235 while reaffirming a Buy recommendation. This revised target represents approximately 7% upside from the current trading level of about $1,189.
The pharmaceutical heavyweight has posted impressive gains of 51% over the trailing twelve months, pushing its market capitalization to approximately $1.06 trillion. The shares are hovering close to their 52-week peak of $1,249.
Fernandez recalibrated his financial model in preparation for Eli Lilly’s upcoming second-quarter earnings release scheduled for August 5, incorporating updated prescription data and currency exchange projections. His firm now anticipates Q2 revenue will reach $20.66 billion, exceeding the consensus Wall Street forecast of $20.55 billion.
Prescription volume data from the United States for tirzepatide—marketed under the brand names Zepbound and Mounjaro—demonstrates robust expansion, forming the foundation for Guggenheim’s quarterly projections. The company has posted year-over-year revenue growth of 47%, with trailing twelve-month sales totaling $72.25 billion.
Obesity Treatment Portfolio Captures Market Focus
Eli Lilly’s recently introduced oral obesity medication Foundayo entered the market in April, prompting Guggenheim to moderately reduce its short-term sales projections for the product due to its nascent commercial stage. The firm emphasized, however, that direct-to-consumer advertising campaigns only began in earnest during early June, suggesting significant growth potential remains ahead.
Guggenheim anticipates the Q2 earnings conference call will emphasize updated guidance, geographic market expansion initiatives, and Medicare reimbursement prospects for the company’s anti-obesity drug portfolio.
Regarding pipeline development, Guggenheim elevated its success probability assessment for retatrutide—a promising next-generation weight-loss therapy—from 70% to 85%. This adjustment follows clinical data unveiled at the American Diabetes Association scientific sessions. The investment firm forecasts retatrutide could generate more than $25 billion in annual revenue by 2035.
Wall Street Consensus Remains Positive
Guggenheim’s bullish stance aligns with broader analyst sentiment. Truist Securities elevated its LLY price objective to $1,370, highlighting robust U.S. prescription trends for both Zepbound and Mounjaro. Cantor Fitzgerald adjusted its target upward to $1,350 accompanied by an Overweight recommendation.
RBC Capital maintained its Outperform designation with a $1,250 price objective, emphasizing favorable growth dynamics.
Among 22 Wall Street analysts covering the stock, LLY carries a consensus Strong Buy rating, comprised of 20 Buy recommendations and two Hold ratings issued within the past three months.
The mean price target among this analyst cohort stands at $1,294.06, suggesting approximately 17% potential appreciation from present trading levels.
Eli Lilly plans to share 16 research abstracts at the 2026 Alzheimer’s Association International Conference in London, featuring data on its Alzheimer’s therapy Kisunla and associated patient outcome measures.
The company’s second-quarter financial results are due August 5.
