Key Takeaways
- June data reveals Google captured 2.8 billion global web visits, marking a 4% annual increase despite Claude’s 736% traffic explosion and Meta AI’s 98% climb
- Mobile daily active users for Google expanded 12% annually, maintaining growth even as ChatGPT and Claude experienced dramatic user expansion
- Web traffic to Gemini has increased more than 4x year-over-year, capturing market share from ChatGPT while leaving Google Search traffic intact
- Q2 financial results scheduled for July 22; Bank of America identifies potential for search revenue to exceed Wall Street projections based on consistent traffic patterns and robust eCommerce activity
- Bank of America maintains Buy recommendation with $430 target price; 86% of 67 Wall Street analysts monitored by FactSet assign Buy ratings to GOOGL
Shares of Alphabet (GOOGL) stock are currently priced at $355.67, reflecting a 14% year-to-date gain in 2026 while experiencing a 6.5% decline from late May peaks. As the company prepares to report second-quarter results on July 22, recent traffic metrics are providing encouragement for investors with long positions.
Recent intelligence from BofA Securities, utilizing data aggregated from Similarweb and Sensor Tower platforms, indicates Google registered 2.8 billion worldwide web visits during June, representing a 4% year-over-year expansion. While this growth rate isn’t spectacular, it demonstrates stability — particularly when considering the competitive landscape.
Claude experienced a dramatic 736% traffic increase during the identical timeframe. Meta AI posted a 98% gain. ChatGPT visits remained unchanged. Against this backdrop of intense competition, Google maintained its position.
Mobile metrics revealed comparable trends. Google’s mobile daily active user count increased 12% on an annual basis. ChatGPT’s mobile users jumped 51% while Claude’s soared 1,206%. Nevertheless, Google’s total user base continued expanding.
Gemini Growth Doesn’t Cannibalize Core Search
A significant anxiety entering 2026 centered on whether Google’s proprietary AI offering, Gemini, might divert traffic from its core search platform. Evidence suggests this fear was unfounded.
Gemini’s web traffic expanded more than fourfold annually. Mobile daily users increased 295%. These gains materialized primarily at ChatGPT’s expense rather than cannibalizing Google Search traffic. Google has strategically integrated Gemini into its AI Overview functionality within search results, an approach that appears to be delivering results.
BofA analyst Justin Post highlighted that Google’s characterization of an “expansionary moment for Search” suggests continued momentum ahead. He anticipates potential upside to consensus estimates given stable traffic metrics and healthy eCommerce transaction volumes throughout Q2.
The search division continues generating the lion’s share of Alphabet’s consolidated revenue, making these traffic indicators particularly significant before the earnings announcement.
Wall Street Consensus
During the previous earnings release on April 30, Alphabet delivered substantial beats. Earnings per share reached $5.11 compared to the $2.68 consensus forecast. Revenue totaled $109.9 billion, representing 21.8% annual growth, surpassing the $106.96 billion estimate.
The company simultaneously increased its quarterly dividend distribution to $0.22 per share from the prior $0.21.
BofA reaffirmed its Buy rating and $430 price objective this Monday. Scotiabank has established a $450 target. Raymond James maintains a Strong Buy designation with a $425 price objective. The aggregate consensus among 70 analysts stands at Buy with a mean price target of $378.53.
Headwinds Facing the Stock
Not everything has been positive. A departure of researchers from DeepMind during June created investor concern, prompting questions about Alphabet’s competitive positioning against OpenAI and Anthropic in developing cutting-edge AI models.
Regulatory scrutiny is also intensifying. UK authorities have placed Google Cloud under direct regulatory supervision. An ongoing legal confrontation in India concerns its advertising platform. Additionally, new concerns have emerged regarding AI model access granted to Singapore-registered entities with Chinese ownership connections.
Corporate insiders have liquidated $8 million in shares during the trailing 90-day period. Director Frances Arnold disposed of 112 shares on June 30 at $351.28 per share.
Institutional ownership remains robust. Sageworth Trust Co expanded its Alphabet holdings by 56.1% during Q1. Currently, institutional investors control 27.26% of outstanding shares.
Alphabet’s market capitalization stands at $4.30 trillion. The stock’s 12-month peak is $404.47.
