Key Highlights
- Shares of SoftBank climbed as much as 14% on Friday, following a nearly 20% surge the previous day, marking a combined two-day gain of approximately 32%
- Nvidia‘s announcement of $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue—an 85% year-over-year increase—sparked renewed excitement across AI infrastructure investments, including SoftBank
- Shares of Arm Holdings, majority-owned by SoftBank, climbed over 16% on Friday, enhancing the perceived value of SoftBank’s portfolio
- Reports emerged that OpenAI may file for a confidential IPO in the United States, potentially as early as Friday, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley serving as lead advisors
- The conglomerate posted a historic annual net profit of ¥5 trillion for the fiscal year ending March, with its OpenAI holdings generating $45 billion in cumulative gains
Shares of SoftBank Group reached 6,881 yen during Friday’s session, climbing as much as 14% intraday and approaching the company’s record high of 6,923.8 yen. This followed Thursday’s explosive rally of nearly 20%, which added approximately $35 billion to the company’s market capitalization in a single day.
The combined 32% jump over just two sessions has captured widespread market attention, leaving investors and market observers debating whether the surge represents fundamental value or merely a fleeting wave of AI enthusiasm.
Three major developments converged to ignite the rally. Nvidia delivered quarterly revenue figures of $81.6 billion, marking an 85% increase from the prior year and solidifying the narrative that spending on AI infrastructure continues to accelerate. The announcement sent shockwaves through stocks with exposure to the AI ecosystem.
SoftBank occupies a strategic position within that ecosystem. With its controlling stake in Arm Holdings and substantial investment in OpenAI, the Japanese conglomerate represents one of the most accessible public-market proxies for AI growth.
Arm Holdings shares jumped more than 16% on Friday. Given SoftBank’s significant ownership stake in the semiconductor designer, substantial movements in Arm’s stock price directly influence how the market values SoftBank’s consolidated holdings.
OpenAI’s Potential Public Debut Energizes Markets
The third and arguably most significant catalyst emerged from reports that OpenAI is moving toward a confidential IPO filing in the United States, potentially submitting documents as soon as Friday. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are reportedly leading the effort.
Andrew Jackson from Ortus Advisors characterized the IPO speculation as the unifying element behind the rally—a single development that allows market participants to connect Nvidia’s strong demand indicators, Arm’s valuation trajectory, and SoftBank’s private AI investments into one cohesive investment thesis.
SoftBank recently disclosed its most successful financial results in company history. Annual net profit for the fiscal year ending March totaled ¥5 trillion, representing the highest figure ever recorded by a Japanese corporation. The company’s investment in OpenAI alone has generated cumulative gains of $45 billion.
CreditSights, part of Fitch Ratings, maintained its “outperform” rating on SoftBank’s debt instruments, asserting that the company’s fundamental asset value remains robust despite increased leverage on its balance sheet.
Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence suggested that potential public listings of OpenAI and SoftBank’s energy and data center subsidiary SB Energy could help reduce SoftBank’s persistent discount to net asset value, which currently exceeds 20%, while simultaneously freeing capital for additional investments.
Skepticism Remains Despite the Surge
Not all market participants are embracing the rally. Vey-Sern Ling from UBP warned that holding-company discounts typically persist even when underlying assets perform strongly. Parent company shareholders frequently fail to realize the full economic value of subsidiary holdings.
SoftBank’s leverage profile, asset-backed financing arrangements, and dependence on private market valuations add additional layers of complexity to the valuation equation.
TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar increased his price target on SoftBank’s American Depositary Receipts from $13 to $20 but maintained a Hold rating—indicating that even analysts raising their projections aren’t necessarily recommending investors purchase shares at current price levels.
The movement in SoftBank’s ADR mirrored the action in Tokyo, with shares climbing sharply in both markets throughout the two-day period.
