TLDR
- First-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue reached $399 million for Nebius, marking a staggering 684% increase versus the prior year, while earnings per share beat Wall Street forecasts by 71.6%
- Analysts at Citi boosted their NBIS price target to $287 from $169—the highest among major banks—while reaffirming their Buy recommendation
- Shares have climbed 138% in 2025 and an extraordinary 434% over the trailing twelve months, pushing market capitalization near $55.65 billion
- The AI cloud provider secured approximately $27 billion in commitments from Meta and $17.4 billion from Microsoft, while Nvidia injected $2 billion in fresh capital this March
- Management increased full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance to a range of $20–$25 billion and projects an annual revenue run rate between $7–$9 billion by December
Nebius Group delivered a jaw-dropping quarterly performance that immediately captured Wall Street’s attention, earning the company a new Street-leading valuation from one of the industry’s most respected financial institutions.
First-quarter fiscal 2026 results showed revenue climbing to $399 million versus $50.9 million in the same quarter last year—a year-over-year expansion of 684%. The earnings beat was equally impressive. The company posted a per-share loss of $0.23, substantially better than the consensus projection of -$0.81, representing a 71.6% positive variance.
Investors responded enthusiastically, pushing shares up 15.72% in the session following the announcement. Year-to-date gains now stand at 138%, while the twelve-month return has reached 434%.
Citi analysts wasted no time upgrading their outlook. Shortly after earnings crossed the tape, the firm elevated its price objective to $287 from a previous $169 target—establishing the highest published target among sell-side firms—while maintaining their Buy recommendation. Analysts pointed to the company’s exceptional expansion trajectory and the substantial infrastructure agreements underpinning future performance.
The AI Cloud division dominated results, posting revenue of $390 million, representing an 841% surge from the year-ago period. Adjusted EBITDA transformed from a $53.7 million deficit to a positive $129.5 million. Net income from continuing operations reversed from a $104.3 million loss to a $621.2 million gain.
However, not all metrics painted an entirely rosy picture. The adjusted net loss expanded to $100.3 million compared to $83.6 million previously, reflecting the significant capital requirements associated with rapid infrastructure scaling. Management also revised upward its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $20–$25 billion from an earlier range of $16–$20 billion.
Major Enterprise Partnerships Fuel Long-Term Visibility
The company benefits from substantial contractual commitments with technology giants. A nearly $27 billion multi-year arrangement with Meta and a separate $17.4 billion pact with Microsoft provide exceptional revenue visibility extending years into the future. Nvidia participated in a $2 billion equity investment in March and is collaborating with Nebius on specialized cloud infrastructure targeting robotics applications and physical AI workloads.
Nebius has broken ground on a gigawatt-scale AI computing facility in Independence, Missouri. Additionally, the company holds power agreements totaling 1.2 gigawatts linked to a prospective $20 billion domestic expansion program.
A distinctive competitive advantage lies in the company’s ownership structure: Nebius directly owns over 75% of its contracted power capacity. This unusually high ownership percentage among AI cloud providers delivers superior margin control and cost predictability compared to competitors who predominantly lease their power infrastructure.
Strategic Acquisitions Expand Platform Capabilities
Management is aggressively building out its technology stack through targeted acquisitions. The company announced plans to acquire Eigen AI, reinforcing its Token Factory inference platform, while simultaneously bringing aboard Clarifai’s engineering team and licensing their inference intellectual property to enhance model deployment capabilities.
Nebius also entered into an agreement to purchase Tavily, integrating agentic search functionality into its cloud ecosystem. A strategic alliance with CrowdStrike delivers comprehensive security capabilities across the company’s next-generation cloud infrastructure.
The firm recently unveiled Nebius AI Cloud 3.5, introducing serverless AI functionality that enables developers to access on-demand computing resources without managing underlying hardware infrastructure.
Financially, the balance sheet showed $9.3 billion in cash and equivalents offset by $8.4 billion in long-term obligations at quarter-end.
Management guidance calls for exiting fiscal 2026 at an annualized revenue run rate between $7–$9 billion. The company’s next quarterly disclosure is scheduled for August 6, 2026. Current analyst estimates project second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share of -$0.69.
Consensus among fourteen covering analysts stands at “Moderate Buy” with a mean price target of $205.20.
