Key Highlights
- BTC declined 2.1% to approximately $62,115 following Trump’s announcement that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has ended
- Crude oil markets rallied, with Brent briefly surging past the $80 per barrel threshold
- Market analyst Michaël Van de Poppe identified $61,000 as a critical support level
- Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed internal disagreement over potential interest rate increases
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded three consecutive days of positive inflows despite market weakness
The leading cryptocurrency experienced a decline exceeding 2% on Wednesday as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions disrupted global markets and triggered a significant rally in crude oil prices.
Bitcoin retreated to approximately $62,115 after trading north of $64,600 earlier this week. The downturn followed President Donald Trump’s declaration at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, that the ceasefire had concluded.
U.S. military forces executed strikes against Iranian targets on Tuesday in response to attacks on three commercial oil vessels near the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Iran conducted retaliatory strikes of its own. Trump indicated Iran would face additional strikes “hard again tonight,” with the Pentagon subsequently confirming further military action had occurred.
BREAKING: US announces it has hit 90 Iranian military targets in tonight’s strikes on Iran, per CENTCOM.
US strikes targeted Iranian air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, and military logistics infrastructure along… pic.twitter.com/NgFiATDLMH
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) July 9, 2026
The President suggested the possibility of reimposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports. Additionally, the U.S. revoked a general license that previously permitted Iranian oil production and sales.
Brent crude futures momentarily exceeded $80 per barrel, reaching levels not seen since June 22. Meanwhile, U.S. WTI crude climbed past $75 per barrel during the session.
Federal Reserve Deliberations Add Market Uncertainty
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June 16-17 policy meeting, published Wednesday, revealed division among policymakers regarding the trajectory of interest rates. Several participants advocated for an immediate rate increase.
The majority of participants highlighted scenarios where inflation could remain persistent due to Middle Eastern energy supply disruptions, artificial intelligence-driven demand pressures, and tariff policies. Current CME FedWatch data indicates increasing probability of a rate hike at the September policy meeting. Traders on the Kalshi prediction platform estimate a 55% likelihood of a rate increase occurring in 2026.
Elevated interest rate expectations typically create headwinds for risk-on assets including digital currencies.
Cryptocurrency analyst and trader Michaël Van de Poppe suggested on X that Bitcoin might test the $61,000 level. He commented: “This to happen, and then 1-2 days later; we’re in talks again. And the markets reverse.” He previously noted there was “no problem” with Bitcoin’s performance provided it maintains support above $60,000.
I’m expecting to see:
– $BTC‘s low of $61,000 to be tested.
– Oil to run higher.
– $NQ to drop further.This to happen, and then 1-2 days later; we’re in talks again.
And the markets reverse.
It’s the same with this man in Office. https://t.co/o2E21SvzwV
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 8, 2026
Technical analyst Ted, sharing insights on X, observed that Bitcoin had developed a hidden bearish divergence on the daily timeframe, cautioning: “$BTC has formed a hidden bearish divergence on the daily timeframe. Bitcoin needs to reclaim $62,500 soon, or else things could get ugly.”
$BTC has formed a hidden bearish divergence on the daily timeframe.
Bitcoin needs to reclaim $62,500 soon, or else things could get ugly. pic.twitter.com/CVFCCyRxGN
— Ted (@TedPillows) July 8, 2026
Investment Fund Inflows Remain Constructive
Notwithstanding the price decline, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs logged three consecutive days of positive net inflows through Tuesday, per SoSoValue tracking data. This trend helped offset a recent pattern of outflows and bolstered Bitcoin’s rebound from late-June lows.
Data from Glassnode indicates Bitcoin has been trading beneath its True Market Mean of $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis of $72,200 for approximately five months. Daily ETF trading volumes ranging from $650 million to $950 million represent roughly an 80% decline from the October 2025 peak levels.
Glassnode: Bitcoin Remains in Deep Value, but Bottom Confirmation Signals Are Still Missing
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin has traded below the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis of $72,200 for about five months, keeping it in deep value territory… pic.twitter.com/TJBNQUi7uk
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 8, 2026
