Key Takeaways
- Equity futures advanced Thursday following renewed US military operations targeting Iran
- Bitcoin maintained support above $62,000, declining 1.2% daily but gaining 1.6% weekly
- Gold extended losses for a fourth consecutive session as Brent crude advanced for a third day, gaining 1% to reach $78.80 per barrel
- Market expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate increase shifted forward from December to October
- Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed indicator rose to 27, breaking a 40-day streak in extreme fear territory
Equity futures trended upward Thursday morning following renewed US military operations against Iranian targets.
Contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 each advanced 0.1%. Nasdaq-100 futures registered a 0.3% increase.
The Pentagon confirmed Wednesday evening that it had “initiated additional military operations against Iran designed to further diminish their capability to threaten maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz.”
President Trump announced Wednesday that the ceasefire arrangement between the nations was “terminated.” He additionally suggested the potential for a US naval blockade of the strategic waterway.
Equity markets ended Wednesday’s session with mixed results after surrendering earlier advances. Crude oil prices surged in response to Trump’s statements.
Crude Advances, Precious Metals Retreat
Brent crude gained 1% to settle at $78.80 per barrel, marking its third consecutive daily increase.
Gold continued its decline for a fourth straight session, hovering around $4,060 per ounce. Elevated rate expectations are pressuring the precious metal, which becomes less attractive when interest-bearing assets offer higher returns.
Market participants adjusted their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next rate increase to October, accelerating the timeline from December.
Cryptocurrency Markets Show Resilience
Bitcoin was trading at $62,009, registering a 1.2% decline over the past 24 hours while posting a 1.6% weekly gain.
Ether was positioned at $1,730, down 1.2% daily but showing a 5.7% gain across seven trading sessions.
Solana demonstrated the weakest performance among major cryptocurrencies, trading at $77.25 with a 1.8% daily decline and 1.7% weekly loss. XRP decreased 0.7% to $1.09.
Bitcoin’s response to geopolitical developments has been notably subdued. Previously, news concerning the Strait of Hormuz could trigger 5% single-day drops in Bitcoin. This week’s movement registered only 1.2%.
This behavior has persisted since February. Each successive escalation has generated a diminished price reaction compared to previous events.
Market participants appear to be interpreting developments through an interest rate lens rather than a crypto-specific risk framework. Bitcoin is demonstrating stronger correlation with rate expectations than crude oil pricing.
The critical support threshold remains at $60,000. Bitcoin has defended this level despite simultaneous pressures from rate repricing, energy market volatility, and fixed income selloffs within a single week.
The Fear and Greed indicator advanced to 27 Thursday, concluding a 40-session stretch in extreme fear territory. The metric hasn’t sustained levels above 50 since November.
Sovereign debt in Japan, Australia, and New Zealand also declined Thursday, continuing Wednesday’s worldwide fixed income selloff. Two-year Treasury yields approached their 2026 peak.
Market observers are also monitoring developments in the artificial intelligence chip sector. SK Hynix’s forthcoming IPO on Friday will provide updated insights into semiconductor demand following June’s sector-wide correction.
Bitcoin’s ability to maintain the $60,000 threshold amid continued escalations, coupled with gold’s ongoing weakness, would suggest markets are increasingly viewing digital assets as rate-sensitive instruments rather than traditional risk hedges.
