Key Takeaways
- SpaceX (SPCX) debuted at $135 on June 12, soared to an intraday peak of $225.64 by June 16, and currently hovers near $145
- Shares have retreated 35% from their all-time high but remain above the initial offering price of $135
- At the height of its post-IPO surge, SpaceX used its inflated stock to acquire AI coding platform Cursor in a $60B all-stock transaction
- Morgan Stanley launched coverage with an Overweight rating and $300 target; Goldman Sachs began with Buy and $205 target
- The company’s debut earnings release is scheduled for early August, aligning with the expiration of employee share restrictions
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. brought its shares to market at $135 apiece on June 12, generating approximately $75 billion in what became the record-breaking IPO of all time. Trading commenced at $150 and finished the inaugural session at $160.95. According to Vanda Research data, retail traders poured an unprecedented $118 million into SPCX shares on opening day.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The upward momentum continued building over subsequent sessions. Just four days into public trading on June 16, shares touched an intraday peak of $225.64, momentarily elevating SpaceX’s valuation above both Amazon and Microsoft. That identical day, the company unveiled its $60 billion acquisition of Anysphere, the developer behind the AI-powered coding tool Cursor, structured entirely in stock.
The strategic timing of that transaction caught market observers’ attention. Leveraging its stock at peak valuations, SpaceX essentially secured Cursor with limited real expense. “It demonstrated a degree of market timing and financial acumen rarely seen among newly public companies,” noted Samuel Kerr from Mergermarket.
CEO Elon Musk amplified investor enthusiasm on June 14 by projecting SpaceX could achieve $1 trillion in yearly revenue by decade’s end. This forecast stands in stark contrast to the company’s 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion and a net loss totaling $4.94 billion.
Momentum Reverses Course
The stock entered correction territory as June drew to a close. On June 22, SpaceX unveiled plans for a bond issuance targeting at least $20 billion to bankroll AI infrastructure and computing capacity expansion. Despite the growth-oriented announcement, shares tumbled over 16% that trading session to settle at $154.60.
Inclusion in major indices — FTSE Russell in late June followed by Nasdaq-100 on July 7 — attracted institutional capital flows. Approximately 200 exchange-traded funds had established SPCX positions by June’s conclusion. However, neither index event provided sufficient momentum to halt the downward trajectory.
When Starlink announced pricing reductions in the Memphis market, shares dropped 8% in one session. The reaction highlighted what certain analysts characterize as disconnect between SpaceX’s artificial intelligence narrative and its core revenue streams, which remain concentrated in launch services and satellite operations.
By July 10, SPCX shares traded at $145.30 — representing a 35% decline from the peak and approximately 18% below the first-day closing price.
Looking Ahead
The mandatory IPO quiet period concluded on July 7, unleashing analyst coverage from major financial institutions. Morgan Stanley published initiation with an Overweight recommendation and $300 price objective. Goldman Sachs began coverage with a Buy rating and $205 target.
Skepticism exists among some market watchers. Seeking Alpha analyst Bohdan Kucheriavyi characterized the $2 trillion market capitalization as “fundamentally unjustifiable,” citing projected revenue under $40 billion for the current year and impending insider share sales following lock-up expiration.
The lock-up period termination is projected to align with SpaceX’s maiden public quarterly report, expected in early August. Employee stock compensation recipients will gain selling ability, potentially introducing additional selling pressure.
CFRA analyst Keith Snyder anticipates further downside to approximately $115, reflecting the company’s present financial profile. At that valuation, SpaceX would carry a market cap near $1.5 trillion.
Investors who participated at the IPO price maintain positive returns. Those who entered during the initial week’s rally face losses.
