Key Points
- Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn lowered the probability of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 from 60% down to 50%
- Despite clearing Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14, no floor debate has been scheduled
- Limited Senate floor time remains available before the August recess concludes in late July
- Democratic senators’ ethics-related requirements have yet to be addressed
- Without a clear schedule by early July, passage may be delayed until post-September
A significant cryptocurrency market structure proposal, the CLARITY Act, successfully moved through the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 with bipartisan backing in a 15-9 vote. However, Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn has recently revised downward his projection for the legislation becoming law in 2026, reducing the likelihood from 60% to 50%.
Currently positioned at #423 on the Senate’s legislative calendar, the bill awaits scheduling for floor consideration.
The fundamental challenge centers on available time. With the Senate’s August recess approaching at July’s end, the chamber faces a shrinking number of productive legislative weeks.
Competing Priorities Consuming Senate Time
Recent weeks saw the Senate lose valuable time to debates over an anti-weaponization funding measure. Additionally, the chamber encountered setbacks attempting to reauthorize FISA Section 702, with a procedural motion falling short at 47-52.
Section 702’s authorization expires June 12, meaning substantial floor time in the upcoming week will necessarily focus on that matter rather than cryptocurrency-related legislation.
While individual delays appear minor, their cumulative effect significantly narrows the already tight window the CLARITY Act requires for advancement.
For successful passage, Senate Majority Leader John Thune must allocate July floor time. The legislation still requires floor debate, an amendment process, and reconciliation with Senate Agriculture Committee language before any House consideration can occur.
This represents an extensive procedural checklist with minimal calendar availability to accommodate it.
Democratic Support Remains Uncertain
Beyond scheduling constraints, a critical substantive matter persists. Democratic senators, with Ruben Gallego taking a leadership role, have indicated that ethics-related provisions represent a mandatory condition for their backing. These provisions remain unaddressed following the committee’s decision to defer resolution to floor action.
Advancement requires a minimum of 60 votes. Galaxy Research anticipates two Republican senators—Josh Hawley and Rand Paul, both of whom opposed last year’s GENIUS Act—will vote against the measure.
This arithmetic provides Thune limited incentive to schedule floor time without confirmed Democratic support.
Factors That Could Improve Prospects
Thorn indicated he would elevate his probability assessment if Thune makes a public commitment to schedule floor consideration in early-to-mid July, and if the ethics and illicit finance concerns are demonstrably resolved with confirmation of a solid bloc of nine or more Democratic supporters.
Announcement that Banking and Agriculture Committee versions have been consolidated into unified legislation would also improve prospects.
Absent these indicators within the next two to three weeks, Galaxy Research suggests the practical pathway shifts to September. However, fall legislative action encounters midterm election pressures, when floor availability becomes scarce and members prioritize campaigning.
Currently, Galaxy Research maintains that CLARITY Act passage in 2026 remains more probable than not, though the advantage continues narrowing.
