Key Takeaways
- Major AI compute agreements with Anthropic, Alphabet, and Reflection AI could generate approximately $28 billion in annual revenue
- Shares have declined 32% from the $225 peak, currently hovering near $153
- The company generated $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue while recording a $4.94 billion net loss
- CEO Elon Musk expressed confidence that SpaceX would significantly surpass analyst revenue forecasts
- Trading at over 100x trailing revenue, Morningstar estimates fair value around $780 billion — approximately half the present valuation
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) are currently changing hands around $153, representing a significant 32% decline from the post-listing high of $225 and just 14% above the initial $135 offering price from its June 12 market debut.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The aerospace company executed what became history’s largest public offering, securing $85.7 billion in capital. While shares jumped initially, they’ve retreated amid widespread selling pressure across the technology sector.
SpaceX expanded its top line by 33% during 2025, reaching $18.7 billion in total revenue. The Starlink division dominated performance with $11.4 billion in sales — representing roughly 61% of consolidated revenue — climbing 48% compared to the prior year. The satellite internet service also crossed 10 million subscribers by March 2026.
However, profitability remains elusive as SpaceX recorded a $4.94 billion net loss throughout 2025. Substantial capital allocation toward Starship engineering and its xAI division continue weighing on earnings. The artificial intelligence business generated $3.2 billion in revenue while remaining unprofitable.
The Strategic Pivot Toward AI Computing Services
The most significant strategic shift involves how SpaceX monetizes its artificial intelligence infrastructure assets.
Instead of deploying GPU resources exclusively for proprietary AI development, SpaceX now leases computing capacity to external research organizations. Anthropic agreed to pay $1.25 billion monthly for exclusive access to the complete Colossus 1 facility. Alphabet committed $920 million per month under its arrangement. Reflection AI secured additional capacity for $150 million monthly.
Collectively, these three agreements represent nearly $28 billion in projected annual revenue.
Company disclosures within IPO documents indicate sufficient infrastructure capacity to fulfill all three commitments while maintaining support for internal AI systems. The filing acknowledged that Grok, its proprietary large language model, will likely remain a specialized offering.
This acknowledgment is significant. SpaceX essentially positions itself as a neocloud infrastructure provider — delivering commodity computing power to AI laboratories rather than directly competing in the AI application market.
Valuation Concerns Relative to Peers
Similar neocloud infrastructure companies command substantially lower valuation multiples. CoreWeave maintains contracted revenue commitments approaching $100 billion while trading around 4.2 times revenue. Oracle holds $638 billion in remaining performance obligations and trades near 5 times sales.
SpaceX, conversely, commands more than 100 times its trailing twelve-month revenue with a $2 trillion market capitalization.
Morningstar analysts estimate intrinsic value around $780 billion — roughly half the current market valuation. The optimistic scenario depends on multiple favorable outcomes: sustained Starlink subscriber acceleration, Starship program milestones achieved on schedule, and xAI segment losses contracting.
This past Sunday, Elon Musk shared on X that falling short of significantly exceeding Wall Street revenue projections would be “disappointing.” Earlier in the month, he suggested the organization could achieve $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030 — more than tripling Morgan Stanley’s $330 billion forecast. Goldman Sachs projects a more ambitious $470 billion by 2030, while New Street Research anticipates approximately $195 billion.
SpaceX maintains $100.8 billion in cash reserves as of mid-June and recently announced plans for a senior unsecured bond issuance. The company’s inaugural quarterly earnings report as a public entity is scheduled for August 17, covering second-quarter performance.
