Key Takeaways
- XRP approaches a rare death cross formation with the 20-week EMA and 200-week EMA converging around $1.39–$1.40
- Historical death cross patterns resulted in price recoveries of 20% and 82.7%, indicating potential short-term upside
- Liquidation data reveals $236.5 million in short positions concentrated at the $1.37–$1.40 resistance zone
- According to analyst Cryptollica, XRP has reached this level of oversold conditions just three times in its 13-year history
- Cycle-based projections from analysts EGRAG CRYPTO and CW indicate potential targets ranging from $5.70 to $8.00
As of June 23, 2026, XRP is changing hands around $1.13–$1.14, retreating from its recent peaks while displaying a convergence of technical indicators that market analysts believe could catalyze a short-term recovery rally approaching 25%.
The 20-week exponential moving average for XRP is currently positioned marginally above the 200-week EMA, hovering near $1.39 and $1.40 respectively. Should the faster-moving average drop below the slower one upon a weekly closing basis, it would establish a rare death cross pattern.
While this formation typically carries bearish connotations, historical precedent indicates this specific crossover has consistently preceded mean-reversion rallies returning toward the longer-term average.
During 2019, XRP experienced approximately a 20% recovery following a comparable technical setup. In 2022, the subsequent bounce reached 82.7%. In both instances, the 200-week EMA functioned as a price magnet.
A replication of this historical behavior would suggest a potential advance toward the $1.39–$1.40 region — representing approximately 23% to 25% appreciation from present levels.
XRP’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently registers just above 30, a threshold commonly linked with oversold market conditions. Values at this level typically indicate diminishing selling pressure.
Concentrated Short Position Liquidations Near $1.40
Liquidation heatmap analysis from CoinGlass identifies a substantial $236.5 million concentration of short liquidations positioned within the $1.37–$1.40 zone above the current market price.
Should XRP initiate an upward movement, short sellers positioned within that range would face forced buybacks of their positions. This purchasing activity could provide additional momentum propelling price action toward $1.40.
Analyst Cryptollica shared insights on Sunday indicating XRP’s 10-day RSI is approaching the low-30s range, nearing levels historically associated with significant accumulation phases throughout previous market cycles.
“In 13 years, XRP has only been this washed out 3 times,” Cryptollica noted. “The first 2 times, the crowd laughed, ignored it, and only understood the setup after price had already left.”
Cryptollica’s technical chart also illustrates XRP maintaining position above the lower boundary of a long-term ascending channel pattern connecting macro bottoms dating back to 2017. This support trendline is located near $0.75.
Large Holder Accumulation and Extended Price Projections
Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO employs a cycle-based analytical framework centered on a “Central Line” — representing a macro equilibrium threshold that distinguishes accumulation phases from expansion phases.
Drawing from historical growth cycles ranging from 200% to 330% beyond this equilibrium line, the analytical model suggests an optimistic target of $8.00 and a conservative-cycle projection of $5.70.
Independently, analyst CW emphasized increasing divergence between whale wallet activity and retail market participants, noting substantial holders are expanding long positions in XRP derivatives.
Analyst Javon Marks observed that each significant momentum bottom throughout XRP’s trading history has subsequently generated returns exceeding 10x, proposing a target above $15 remains achievable, characterizing the present situation as consistent with an established pattern of 1,000%+ advances from comparable low points.
XRP’s 24-hour trading volume currently registers at $1.45 billion, accompanied by a market capitalization of $70.99 billion, reflecting a 6.02% increase over the past 24 hours.
