TLDR
- Shares of SpaceX are declining over 3% in early Monday trading, continuing a retreat from recent highs following the June IPO.
- The company’s shares launched at $135 on June 12 and climbed sharply before retreating approximately 9% across the previous two sessions.
- Despite recent losses, SPCX remained 37% above its offering price through Thursday’s market close.
- KeyBanc launched coverage with a neutral Sector Weight stance, citing concerns over valuation multiples of 29x P/S and 71x EV/EBITDA.
- Wall Street sentiment shows six firms recommending Buy while CFRA stands alone with a Sell recommendation.
SpaceX (SPCX) shares are experiencing a decline exceeding 3% during Monday’s premarket session, hovering near $178 following drops of 5% and 3.6% on the prior Wednesday and Thursday.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Shares closed Thursday at $185 — maintaining a 37% premium over the $135 initial offering price — though the initial post-listing excitement is unmistakably cooling. Those who purchased SPCX shares on the secondary market following the June 12 debut have watched much of their paper profits diminish.
The company’s public offering emerged as among the most closely monitored market events in recent history. Its valuation momentarily exceeded both Amazon and Microsoft during the initial trading days before retreating beneath those tech giants.
Financial disclosures revealed a $4.9 billion net loss for 2025 and an additional $4.28 billion deficit in Q1 2026. Optimistic investors are wagering on Elon Musk’s track record of generating long-term value despite current red ink.
Musk personally controls 42% of the outstanding equity, subject to a lockup period extending through June 2027. With merely 5% of approximately 13 billion shares available in the initial public float, trading volume remains constrained.
KeyBanc Raises Valuation Red Flags
KeyBanc launched coverage Monday morning with a Sector Weight recommendation — essentially a neutral stance. The research team characterized SpaceX as “the dominant leader in space launch and space-adjacent verticals” while suggesting risk-reward appears balanced at present trading levels.
Trading at approximately 29x price-to-sales and 71x EV/EBITDA based on 2027 projections, KeyBanc noted the shares command a substantial premium relative to comparable companies spanning aerospace, artificial intelligence, and communications sectors.
The investment bank identified Starship advancement as the critical factor. The advanced rocket system is fundamental for launching Starlink V3 satellites, reducing launch economics, and ultimately enabling orbital computing facilities. Starship flight 13 is slated for June 29.
KeyBanc indicated it adopts “a conservative approach” regarding development schedules, characterizing the coming 12–24 months as a “prove it phase.”
Business Segment Breakdown
SpaceX operates across three primary divisions. The Connectivity segment — housing Starlink — accounted for 61% of 2025 revenue, producing approximately $11.4 billion with a robust 63% adjusted EBITDA margin. This represents the company’s current profitability driver.
The AI division, encompassing Grok and xAI infrastructure following the February 2026 combination, continues operating at a loss. However, it has secured substantial contracts: an agreement with Anthropic valued at approximately $1.25 billion monthly, plus a separate arrangement with Google worth $920 million per month.
KeyBanc forecasts AI segment revenue potentially reaching $50.6 billion by 2027. The challenge? Grok currently captures merely 3.1% of U.S. business adoption, trailing Anthropic’s 41% and OpenAI’s 39.5%.
Current Wall Street consensus shows six analysts maintaining Buy ratings on SPCX. CFRA remains the singular firm issuing a Sell recommendation. The upcoming Starship flight 13, scheduled for June 29, is expected to serve as an important near-term market catalyst.
