Key Takeaways
- Oppenheimer launches coverage with an Outperform rating and $190 price target for SpaceX
- New Street Research establishes a $165 price objective, representing ~22% upside from the $135 IPO price
- 2030 revenue projections reach $195 billion with anticipated operating profit of $65 billion
- The company’s valuation sits at approximately 38x projected 2030 operating profit, compared to Alphabet’s 13x multiple
- Retail investor appetite for the offering may exceed $70 billion; minimum 20% retail allocation expected
Ahead of its scheduled Friday, June 12 market debut, SpaceX is preparing to price its IPO at $135 per share — and financial analysts are already establishing their positions.
Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research led the charge by initiating coverage with a $165 price objective. This valuation represents approximately 22% appreciation from the offering price and translates to an equity valuation near $2.3 trillion. While Ferragu hasn’t issued a formal recommendation due to uncertainty around opening price dynamics, his optimistic scenario envisions shares reaching $330.
Timothy Horan at Oppenheimer took an even more aggressive stance, assigning an Outperform recommendation alongside a $190 price objective. KGI has similarly issued a Buy recommendation, although their complete analysis hasn’t received broad distribution.
Ferragu’s financial model anticipates 2030 revenue hitting $195 billion alongside operating profit of $65 billion. His valuation framework assigns $650 billion to Starlink operations and $575 billion to artificial intelligence ventures.
Averaging the price objectives from Ferragu and Horan places SpaceX at roughly 38 times projected 2030 operating profit. By comparison, Alphabet currently commands approximately 13 times the same measure.
Understanding the Valuation Premium
According to Horan, SpaceX represents “the only vertically-integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing and engineering talent.”
His investment rationale emphasizes the company’s capability to construct and manage space-based data centers, which Elon Musk has suggested could operate more cost-effectively than terrestrial facilities in coming years.
This narrative has resonated strongly with investors. Industry sources indicate retail investor demand for the IPO could surpass $70 billion. The company plans to allocate at least 20% of available shares to retail participants — an unusually generous portion for an offering of this magnitude. Global institutional investors may receive under 10% of total allocations.
Retail access is expected through platforms including Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab.
Senator Elizabeth Warren has urged the SEC to postpone the listing, introducing regulatory uncertainty into an otherwise enthusiastic investment environment.
Early Trading Indicators
While SpaceX hasn’t commenced official trading, perpetual futures contracts on cryptocurrency exchange Hyperliquid were valuing shares around $164 during Thursday’s early hours — closely aligned with Ferragu’s projection.
It’s important to recognize that New Street, Oppenheimer, and KGI aren’t serving as underwriters for this offering. Investment banks participating in IPO underwriting face mandatory waiting periods before publishing research coverage. These independent firms operate without such limitations.
Oppenheimer simultaneously upgraded its Tesla stock perspective in the same research note, citing improved electric vehicle demand supported by elevated petroleum prices.
Should SpaceX finish trading near the $164 futures pricing on Friday, analysts may need to promptly revise their price objectives upward.
