Key Takeaways
- SpaceX has scheduled its IPO for June 2026, targeting an unprecedented $1.75 trillion valuation that would establish it as history’s biggest public offering.
- Revenue expansion at SpaceX decelerated to 18% in 2025, a sharp drop from 51% and 89% growth rates in previous years.
- A $5 billion loss hit SpaceX in 2025, primarily driven by unprofitable artificial intelligence investments following its $250 billion xAI acquisition.
- Rocket Lab achieved its 8th orbital mission of 2026 on April 22, deploying eight satellites for Japan’s JAXA space program.
- Trading at a $49 billion valuation, RKLB stock carries a price-to-sales multiple of 74, indicating investors are pricing in flawless execution ahead.
While Wall Street obsesses over SpaceX’s forthcoming public debut, Rocket Lab (RKLB) has been methodically expanding its launch portfolio. The company successfully placed eight satellites into orbit for Japan’s JAXA space agency on April 22 — representing its second dedicated JAXA contract in recent months and marking the company’s 8th orbital deployment this year.
Peter Beck, the company’s CEO, highlighted Electron as “the preferred small launcher for national space agencies.” The mission payload featured diverse technology: an ocean surveillance satellite, an educational spacecraft, a demonstration multispectral imaging system, and an innovative origami-inspired antenna capable of expanding to 25 times its stowed configuration.
The execution was flawless. And context matters here.
SpaceX leadership reportedly convened with investment bankers recently to orchestrate a June public offering. The proposed $1.75 trillion valuation would position it as the world’s eighth-most-valuable corporation, surpassing both Tesla and Meta. Unusually, retail participants could receive up to 30% of the allocation, dramatically exceeding the standard 5–10% range.
This elevated retail participation has sparked concern among market observers. Some analysts fear it could trigger meme stock-style trading behavior, divorcing share price from underlying business fundamentals.
Revenue Deceleration at SpaceX Raises Questions
According to private market intelligence firm Sacra, SpaceX posted 18% revenue expansion in 2025. While positive on its face, this figure pales against the 51% growth achieved in 2024 and the 89% surge recorded in 2023. The slowdown pattern is unmistakable.
The xAI transaction adds another layer of complexity. SpaceX acquired Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence venture in February through a $250 billion stock transaction. AI remains an intensely competitive arena, and the integration has already proven costly. According to The Information, SpaceX recorded a $5 billion loss in 2025, with AI-related expenditures accounting for the majority.
Prospective shareholders entering at a $1.75 trillion valuation are essentially betting on massive future expansion from an enterprise already experiencing growth deceleration and substantial red ink.
Rocket Lab’s Valuation Demands Scrutiny Too
Rocket Lab commands a $49 billion market capitalization with a price-to-sales ratio of 74. By conventional standards, this represents premium pricing. At such elevated multiples, there’s minimal margin for execution missteps.
The company’s upcoming critical milestone is Neutron, a medium-lift launch vehicle engineered to challenge SpaceX’s Falcon 9 more directly. Launch operations are anticipated for later in 2026. Schedule slippage could trigger significant downward pressure on shares.
RKLB has experienced substantial volatility, trading in a $20.23 to $99.58 range over the trailing twelve months. The company maintains a gross margin of 31.66%.
Nevertheless, when comparing $49 billion to $1.75 trillion, Rocket Lab presents greater proportional appreciation potential — assuming operational performance continues.
The recent JAXA deployment represented Rocket Lab’s second contracted mission for the Japanese agency in just months, following the RAISE-4 launch completed in December 2025.
