Key Takeaways
- ON Semiconductor reached a fresh 52-week peak of $99.64, marking a 145% gain year-over-year
- B. Riley shifted its rating to Buy and elevated the price target from $64 to $115
- Analyst Craig Ellis contends the cyclical bottom is now in the rearview mirror
- First-quarter 2026 earnings scheduled for May 4, with revenue projections between $1.435B and $1.535B
- MOSFET delivery times for Onsemi components have stretched to 26 weeks, according to Baird research
ON Semiconductor has experienced remarkable momentum. Shares touched $99.64 during this week’s trading session, establishing a new 52-week peak and extending a rally that has propelled the stock 145% higher over the trailing twelve months.
ON Semiconductor Corporation, ON
The upward trajectory coincides with B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis elevating ON to a Buy rating from Neutral, while simultaneously raising the firm’s valuation target from $64 to $115—an increase of nearly 80%.
Ellis issued this call in anticipation of ON’s first-quarter 2026 financial results, scheduled for release on May 4. His investment rationale centers on the notion that the cyclical headwinds have dissipated, and the company’s strategic emphasis on power semiconductor solutions, silicon carbide technologies for electric vehicles, and industrial automation applications sets the stage for sustained growth.
This upgrade represents one of the most bullish revisions on a domestic semiconductor manufacturer this season. ON was changing hands near $98 during intraday trading when the analyst issued his recommendation.
BofA Securities has similarly elevated ON to Buy status in recent weeks, highlighting the firm’s artificial intelligence capabilities, its Treo product portfolio, and a freshly approved $6 billion stock repurchase authorization extending over three years.
ON’s Chief Executive Hassane El-Khoury has indicated the company is observing “increasing signs of stabilization” across its principal markets, commentary that reinforces the optimistic outlook analysts are now embracing.
Financial Performance and Upcoming Results
Fiscal year 2025 revenue totaled $5.995 billion, representing a 15% decline compared to the prior year. Nevertheless, despite the top-line contraction, free cash flow reached an all-time high of $1.418 billion for the period.
First-quarter 2026 projections anticipate revenue ranging from $1.435 billion to $1.535 billion, with earnings per share expected between $0.56 and $0.66. These figures suggest sequential improvement, which represents precisely what investors have been anticipating.
The equity currently trades at a trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 307x, which appears elevated. However, the forward P/E ratio of 31x reflects the earnings expansion analysts are forecasting.
Market capitalization stands near $35 billion. Wall Street consensus remains divided: 11 analysts recommend buying against 23 maintaining hold ratings.
InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock trades above its Fair Value calculation, positioning it among the more richly valued securities in the current market environment.
Supply Dynamics Shifting
Another favorable development is emerging beneath the surface. Baird’s analysis reveals that semiconductor delivery timeframes are expanding across various product categories.
MOSFET lead times currently average 25 weeks throughout the industry. Onsemi’s MOSFET products particularly are experiencing lead times extending to 26 weeks—indicating demand acceleration outpacing supply availability.
Such supply constraints typically support enhanced pricing discipline, which would bolster margin expansion from the 38% non-GAAP gross margin low point the company experienced during the previous cycle.
Challenges persist. Barclays highlighted ON’s significant automotive sector exposure and China market concentration when establishing Equal-Weight coverage.
Insider transaction patterns warrant monitoring as well. CFO share sales in April introduce a cautionary element to an otherwise constructive technical picture.
Attention now shifts to May 4, when ON Semiconductor unveils its first-quarter 2026 performance. The earnings release will provide the initial substantive validation of whether the stabilization narrative withstands scrutiny.
