Key Takeaways
- Shares have declined 8.2% in 2024, reaching their lowest close since mid-December on Thursday
- Forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 19.7x versus the S&P 500’s 20.3x — breaking a 13-year premium streak
- Wolfe Research maintains Outperform rating with $275 target after GTC unveiling of Rubin Ultra “Pods”
- Jensen Huang’s comments suggest potential production of 200 pods weekly — translating to approximately $120 billion monthly revenue, according to Wolfe’s calculations
- J.P. Morgan data indicates NVDA continues leading as the top retail investor stock purchase
Nvidia (NVDA) ended Thursday’s trading session at $109.02, marking its weakest closing price since mid-December, as artificial intelligence stocks face sustained downward pressure.
Shares showed modest recovery in Friday’s premarket activity, gaining 0.3% following Thursday’s losses.
Year-to-date performance heading into Friday reflected an 8.2% decline.
The recent pullback has brought the company’s valuation metric to an unusual position relative to broader market benchmarks. Based on FactSet data, the chip manufacturer currently commands a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 19.7 times. This represents a discount compared to the S&P 500’s 20.3 times forward earnings ratio.
This marks a meaningful departure from historical norms. Nvidia had maintained a valuation premium over the S&P 500 on a forward P/E basis continuously for 13 years — spanning from February 2013 through late February 2025, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The premium ended on February 28, coinciding with heightened geopolitical tensions related to Iran that impacted overall market sentiment. Following that break, the stock has alternated between trading at a discount and premium to the index.
Retail Trading Activity Remains Strong
The recent price decline hasn’t dampened investor appetite for the semiconductor stock. According to J.P. Morgan’s weekly retail trading analysis, Nvidia held the top position as the most-purchased individual equity among retail investors during the week concluded March 25.
The stock also received unanimous support from investment professionals participating in Barron’s Roundtable discussions.
Meanwhile, Broadcom (AVGO) slipped 0.9% in Friday’s premarket trading, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) similarly declined 0.9%.
Analysts Highlight Rubin Ultra Pod Revenue Potential
Wolfe Research reaffirmed its Outperform stance and $275 price objective on NVDA this week, pointing to the company’s GTC conference reveal of Rubin Ultra “Pods” — specialized reference architecture designed for agentic AI datacenter deployments.
Wolfe’s analysis projects approximately $150 million in Nvidia-sourced components per individual pod. The firm estimates that roughly two-thirds of this value stems from VR200 rack configurations, with Groq accounting for the largest portion of new revenue streams.
The research firm additionally noted that newly introduced components such as CPU units, storage systems, and Groq integration could boost revenue by 50% beyond VR compute racks alone. Specifically, Groq LPX rack additions contribute an extra 25% revenue opportunity above the VR200 foundation, delivering low-latency inference capabilities for premium-tier services.
In a recent conversation on the Lex Fridman podcast, CEO Jensen Huang indicated the company might require production of “about 200 of these per week, just for context.” Wolfe Research translated those figures: 200 pods produced weekly equates to approximately $120 billion in monthly revenue potential — a striking comparison against current Wall Street consensus estimates of $482 billion in annual revenue for 2027.
Rosenblatt Securities sustained its Buy recommendation with a $325 price target, emphasizing clear visibility toward more than $1 trillion in commitments for Blackwell and Rubin platform orders extending through 2027. Cantor Fitzgerald likewise maintained its Overweight rating at $300 following the company’s GTC presentation. InvestingPro intelligence reveals that 31 analysts have recently increased their earnings projections for the coming period, with some price targets stretching to $380.
