Key Takeaways
- Nvidia shares have dropped approximately 3% following the outbreak of conflict with Iran on February 27
- CNBC’s Jim Cramer suggests the war’s effect on NVDA is difficult to measure, but core demand drivers stay intact
- Wells Fargo believes Nvidia’s $1 trillion data center revenue projection for Blackwell and Rubin GPUs might underestimate actual results
- Analyst Aaron Rakers from Wells Fargo projects potential upside of 15–20%+ above current 2026–2027 data center forecasts
- Major cloud service providers plan to install approximately 22GW and 25GW of AI computing capacity in 2026 and 2027
Shares of Nvidia have declined roughly 3% since conflict erupted in Iran on February 27, leaving market participants questioning how much of the selloff stems from geopolitical tensions versus other factors.
During Thursday’s broadcast of “Mad Money,” CNBC’s Jim Cramer provided viewers with a framework for assessing Nvidia’s current position. His verdict: the share price drop can’t be attributed solely to war concerns, and the company’s underlying business case remains sound.
“Nvidia represents a substantial portion of the overall market, making it the most liquid stock for traders to move in and out of,” Cramer explained. “I believe it’s declining because participants know they can easily re-enter at more attractive levels.”
President Trump has postponed strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure until April 6, injecting additional uncertainty into volatile markets. Cramer emphasized that predicting when hostilities will cease is virtually impossible.
Interest rate movements also play a role. Elevated rates might decelerate data center expansion by increasing capital costs. Yet Cramer cautioned: “Should the conflict resolve quickly and a new Federal Reserve chairman take office, you’ll regret sitting on the sidelines away from Nvidia.”
From a supply perspective, the technology sector faces shortages in both processing power and memory, indicating that demand for Nvidia’s chips is limited by expense rather than lack of interest.
“Every application powered by Nvidia is viewed as essential infrastructure,” Cramer observed, dismissing worries about energy expenses at data facilities. Nvidia’s operations rely primarily on U.S. natural gas, which has “shown minimal movement.”
Cramer also mentioned that Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds have contributed financing for data center construction. Questions persist about whether this capital source might evaporate. However, following his attendance at Nvidia’s GTC conference recently, Cramer reported that demand appeared “exceptionally robust.”
His bottom line: while not aggressively bullish, he’d prefer entering positions slightly ahead of schedule rather than missing potential gains. “You’re essentially getting an opportunity to acquire a premium stock at a discount to typical pricing.”
Wells Fargo Projects Revenue Beyond Nvidia’s Own Guidance
In separate commentary Thursday, Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers suggested that Nvidia’s internal $1 trillion data center revenue projection — spanning its Blackwell and Rubin GPU architectures through 2027 — may prove overly cautious.
Rakers, who maintains an Overweight recommendation and $265 price objective on NVDA, indicated he sees 15–20%+ potential above current Wall Street consensus for 2026–2027 data center revenues.
His reasoning: the five largest cloud infrastructure companies are anticipated to implement approximately 22 gigawatts of AI computing infrastructure in 2026 and 25 gigawatts in 2027. This deployment scale suggests materially higher Nvidia revenue than existing analyst models capture.
“Based on our analysis, we present a framework indicating approximately $120B+ in NVDA data center revenue upside for 2026–2027 versus consensus projections,” Rakers stated.
Analyzing the $1 Trillion Revenue Pipeline
From Nvidia’s disclosed $1T+ Blackwell and Rubin backlog, Wells Fargo calculates that roughly $840 billion is scheduled for delivery during 2026 and 2027. As of January 2026, approximately $150–$155 billion had been recognized as revenue.
Rakers estimates Nvidia had installed around 9 gigawatts of Blackwell infrastructure exiting fiscal Q4 2026, with Blackwell GPUs representing approximately 65–70% of that total. This translates to roughly $25 billion per gigawatt deployed.
Rakers indicated he’s not officially increasing his forecasts yet, but remains open to revisions if deployment metrics continue exceeding expectations.
