Key Takeaways
- Novo Nordisk’s once-daily Wegovy tablet reached 3 million prescriptions in the U.S. within five months of its market debut
- More than 80% of prescriptions went to individuals who had never used GLP-1 medications before, indicating market expansion
- Eli Lilly’s competing oral medication Foundayo entered the market in April but has recorded fewer U.S. prescriptions to date
- NVO shares were priced at $42.96 on June 5, while analyst valuations suggest a fair value near $74 per ADR
- TD Cowen increased its global GLP-1 revenue projection for 2030 to $150B, citing oral formulation uptake as a key driver
Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares closed at $42.96 on June 5, marking approximately a 37% decline from price levels discussed in an optimistic analysis from May 2025. However, several Wall Street analysts believe the stock’s decline has created an attractive entry point.
The once-daily Wegovy pill has emerged as a significant catalyst. Management confirmed prescriptions for the oral tablet surpassed 3 million within five months of U.S. availability — a trajectory that exceeded expectations for a novel delivery format in an increasingly crowded sector.
The pharmaceutical giant hit the 1 million prescription mark during the first 10 to 12 weeks post-launch, then doubled that figure over the subsequent 10-week period. This uptick in momentum drew attention from company leadership, who characterized it as proof of sustained demand despite intensifying competitive pressures.
CEO Mike Doustdar shared these figures at an R&D presentation on Sunday, acknowledging that Eli Lilly’s (LLY) oral obesity treatment Foundayo launched in April. He emphasized the prescription growth represents “acceleration” even with Lilly’s product now available to patients.
IQVIA prescription tracking data reviewed by analysts shows Foundayo has generated fewer U.S. prescriptions compared to the oral Wegovy formulation through the same timeframe. Nevertheless, Eli Lilly maintains a substantially higher market valuation and continues to lead Novo Nordisk in Wall Street’s assessment.
Over 80% of Oral Wegovy Patients Are First-Time GLP-1 Users
Novo disclosed that more than four out of five new oral Wegovy prescriptions were written for individuals with no prior GLP-1 drug use. This metric carries significant weight — it indicates the pill is attracting patients who previously remained untreated for obesity rather than simply converting existing injectable users.
TD Cowen revised its 2030 worldwide GLP-1 market forecast upward to $150 billion from $139 billion, attributing part of the increase to expanding adoption of oral alternatives.
Novo’s forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 12.77, while the trailing P/E registers at 10.09, per Yahoo Finance data. A discounted cash flow valuation analysis arrived at an intrinsic value estimate of roughly $74 per ADR — representing approximately 92% potential appreciation from current trading levels. The calculation applied conservative assumptions regarding revenue expansion and profit margins.
2026 Expected as Transition Period Before Growth Resumes
The optimistic outlook on NVO shares doesn’t dismiss current headwinds. Rather, the investment thesis argues the market is pricing in lasting impairment from what many expect will prove a transient downturn.
Projections call for revenue to contract roughly 9% during 2026, pressured by softer injectable Wegovy sales, pricing headwinds, and disappointing results from CagriSema clinical studies. These obstacles are acknowledged as legitimate concerns.
Yet the oral Wegovy commercial launch, the broadening GLP-1 addressable market, and Novo’s entrenched diabetes franchise form the foundation of the anticipated rebound beginning in 2027 and extending beyond.
As of June 9, Novo officially validated the 3 million prescription achievement during its R&D presentation, confirming the oral Wegovy commercial rollout continues to meet internal benchmarks.
