Key Highlights
- Americans for Fair Markets (AFM), a new advocacy organization backed by Kalshi, has been established to influence federal policy surrounding prediction markets.
- Taylor Budowich, who previously served in the Trump White House, joins the organization as a strategic advisor.
- The organization’s debut coincides with the House Oversight Committee’s announcement of insider trading investigations targeting Kalshi and Polymarket.
- AFM presents itself as a counterweight to traditional gaming companies and sportsbooks that oppose prediction market expansion.
- Traditional gambling industry representatives have characterized prediction markets as disguised sports betting platforms.
Kalshi, a prediction market platform operating under federal oversight, has established a new advocacy organization named Americans for Fair Markets. This initiative seeks to shape legislative and regulatory perspectives on prediction markets across the country.
The organization has brought on Taylor Budowich, who served in senior communications roles during Donald Trump’s presidency, as a strategic advisor. Budowich departed from his position at a Trump-aligned super PAC in September after managing White House communications.
Kalshi provided financial support for AFM’s formation, though the organization maintains it includes additional members. While a representative characterized the group as having substantial financial resources, specific funding amounts were not disclosed.
AFM’s mission centers on challenging what it describes as misleading characterizations of prediction markets promoted by established gambling interests. The organization contends that conventional sportsbook operators and casino groups are engaged in a campaign to discredit prediction markets for competitive reasons.
“Entrenched monopolistic interests won’t outspend or out-organize our efforts,” stated John Bivona, who leads government relations at Kalshi and now serves on AFM’s board.
Congressional Investigation Announced Simultaneously
AFM’s formation occurred on the identical day that House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer revealed investigations examining potential insider trading activities at both Kalshi and Polymarket. Comer referenced questionable wagering activity preceding military operations involving Venezuela and Iran, situations that have already resulted in law enforcement actions domestically and in Israel.
Kalshi has expressed support for Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight of its operations. Jurisdictional disputes have emerged between the CFTC and state-level authorities, with states maintaining that prediction markets contravene existing gambling regulations.
Polymarket maintains a compliant domestic operation while handling the majority of transactions through international channels. Kalshi, conversely, functions predominantly as a federally supervised exchange.
Traditional Gaming Sector Responds
The American Gaming Association has adopted a confrontational position regarding prediction markets. During recent congressional testimony, the organization’s president and CEO Bill Miller characterized these platforms as entities “misleadingly labeling sports wagering as financial instruments and investment opportunities.”
AFM’s digital presence presents the opposing view, contending that prohibiting prediction markets would force them to operate through “offshore unregulated channels lacking identity verification, consumer safeguards, or insider trading enforcement.”
AFM represents part of a broader advocacy effort that includes the Coalition for Prediction Markets, which emerged in December 2025 with backing from Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Robinhood.
The organization advocates for platforms implementing consumer protection measures including identity verification protocols, insider trading prohibitions, and restrictions preventing markets related to violence or terrorist activities.
Trump’s position on prediction markets has evolved. Initially expressing dissatisfaction with these platforms last month, he subsequently moderated his stance, warning that prohibition would leave the United States at a competitive disadvantage. His son, Donald Trump Jr., maintains financial interests in Polymarket through his advisory board position and also advises Kalshi.
Kalshi’s market valuation recently reached $22 billion, representing a doubling in value following a $1 billion capital infusion.
