Key Takeaways
- Porsche AG received a rating upgrade from Goldman Sachs, moving from “neutral” to “buy” with a price objective increased to €59 from €39
- With shares trading at €47.73, the revised target represents approximately 23.6% potential appreciation
- FY2026 earnings per share projections were reduced 10.2% to €1.79, while FY2028 estimates jumped 11.7% to €3.37
- Chinese market deliveries are projected to plummet to approximately 28,000 vehicles in FY2026, a dramatic decline from 93,000 in FY2022
- An independent DCF valuation from Simply Wall St places fair value at €41.11, indicating potential overvaluation at present levels
Goldman Sachs revised its stance on Porsche AG (P911) this Thursday, elevating the German automaker to “buy” from “neutral” while simultaneously increasing its 12-month price objective to €59 from €39. Trading at €47.73 before the announcement, shares now face an implied appreciation potential of roughly 23.6% based on the new target.
Porsche Automobil Holding SE, POAHF
The investment bank established a 20x valuation multiple — elevated from the previous 15x — applied to a balanced average of FY2027 and FY2028 earnings per share projections. When measured against FY2029 anticipated earnings, this translates to 14.5x.
For the fiscal year 2026, Goldman reduced its earnings projection by 10.2% to €1.79 per share, acknowledging immediate challenges. However, the firm simultaneously boosted its FY2028 forecast by 11.7% to €3.37, projecting a compound annual growth rate in EPS through 2030 of 30%.
The adjustment stems from two primary catalysts: the stabilization of 911 model variant distribution and reductions in overhead expenses.
Regarding the iconic 911 lineup, Goldman identified that supply chain disruptions from force-majeure events during late 2024 caused disproportionate early shipments of the refreshed 992.2 generation to favor entry-level and middle-tier configurations. This temporary shift has compressed average transaction prices in recent quarters.
The firm anticipates 911 average selling price expansion of approximately 12% in FY2026 and 5% in FY2027, significantly exceeding Visible Alpha consensus projections of 5.9% and 2.4% for those respective periods.
Product mix is anticipated to stabilize by 2027 — mirroring the trajectory of the preceding 992 iteration, which achieved equilibrium during its third to fourth year of production.
Expense Management Under Scrutiny
Examining operational efficiency, Goldman highlighted that Porsche’s selling, general, and administrative costs represented 12.9% of consolidated revenue in FY2025. This exceeds Ferrari’s 9%, BMW’s 7.9%, and Mercedes-Benz’s 9.2%, suggesting opportunity for improvement.
The analysis also revealed that merely 76.5% of Porsche’s workforce of 41,800 employees falls under the protection of the company’s 2030 job security commitment — a factor to monitor as efficiency initiatives progress.
Consolidated EBIT is projected to reach €2.22 billion in FY2026, advancing to €3.11 billion in FY2027 and €4.17 billion in FY2028. Operating margins are expected to strengthen from 6.7% in FY2026 to 9.7% by FY2028.
Chinese Market Presents Headwinds
The Chinese market remains a significant challenge for volume growth. Goldman projects merely 28,000 vehicle deliveries in FY2026 and 23,000 in FY2027 — representing a substantial contraction from the 93,000 units achieved in FY2022. China’s contribution to overall deliveries is anticipated to shrink to 11% in FY2026 and further to 9.5% in FY2027.
Overall group vehicle deliveries are forecast at 250,459 units in FY2026 and 246,201 in FY2027, reflecting year-over-year contractions of 10% and 2% respectively.
Goldman’s bullish perspective isn’t universally embraced. A discounted cash flow analysis conducted by Simply Wall St establishes Porsche’s fundamental value at €41.11 per share — approximately 17.5% beneath the recent closing price of €48.29. Their comprehensive valuation framework assigned Porsche a score of 0 out of 6, noting a price-to-earnings ratio of 140.55x compared to the sector average of 15.68x.
Over the trailing 30-day period, P911 has advanced 13%. Year-to-date performance shows a more restrained gain of 1.4%.
