Key Takeaways
- Over the last 30 days, DAL has climbed approximately 5% while competitors like Southwest, United, and American Airlines have fallen over 10%
- First-quarter earnings release scheduled for Wednesday, April 8, prior to market open
- Jet fuel expenses have skyrocketed 103% in 30 days, reaching $195 per barrel due to Iran-related conflict — Delta maintains a no-hedge policy on fuel
- Wall Street projects Q1 revenue at $14.8B (up 5.38%) with earnings per share of $0.62, improving from $0.46 previously
- From a technical perspective, DAL trades above its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, eyeing the $76 year-to-date peak as next resistance
As Delta Air Lines prepares to unveil its first-quarter financial results on April 8, the carrier finds itself in a notably stronger position compared to industry competitors. Over the previous month, DAL shares have advanced approximately 5%, contrasting sharply with declines exceeding 10% for Southwest, United, and American Airlines during the identical timeframe.
This divergence stems from several strategic advantages. Delta has aggressively targeted premium-tier passengers, capturing affluent travelers who maintain spending patterns regardless of economic headwinds. During the fourth quarter, revenue from premium seating jumped 9% to approximately $5.7 billion, even as main cabin receipts declined 7% to $5.62 billion.
The carrier also demonstrated resilience following turbulence in late February, when shares dipped beneath the 50-day moving average amid rising bond yields and oil prices sparked by escalating Iran tensions. A decisive rebound on March 9 enabled DAL to reclaim ground above this critical technical threshold.
Attention now shifts to Wednesday’s report.
Wall Street consensus points to Q1 revenue reaching $14.8 billion, representing a 5.38% year-over-year expansion, alongside earnings per share of $0.62 compared to $0.46 in the prior-year period. However, these projections face potential headwinds.
Jet Fuel Expenses Present Major Uncertainty
Delta maintains a policy of not hedging jet fuel expenses. This strategy is now proving costly. According to IATA data, average jet fuel pricing has soared to $195 per barrel — representing a 103% surge from one month prior — fueled by supply constraints linked to the Iran situation.
This development directly pressures profit margins. Delta management will likely elaborate on how geopolitical tensions are reshaping its 2025 projections during the earnings call. While the airline has weathered previous oil price shocks — including the spike following Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion — the current escalation is particularly aggressive.
Management previously issued Q1 adjusted earnings guidance of $0.50 to $0.90, with the $0.70 midpoint tracking slightly below the $0.72 analyst consensus established at the time of guidance.
For fiscal 2025, Delta has projected full-year earnings between $6.50 and $7.50 per share. Total annual revenue is anticipated to hit $67.2 billion in 2025, advancing to $70 billion in 2026.
Technical Picture Suggests Upside Potential
From a charting perspective, DAL has demonstrated solid support. The stock recovered from a March bottom at $55.20 and currently trades near $66.70. Shares maintain positions above both the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, along with an upward trendline established since June of last year.
The price action has produced a harami candlestick formation — characterized by a smaller bullish candle following a larger bearish one — which technical analysts frequently interpret as a possible trend reversal indicator.
The year-to-date peak of $76 represents approximately 14% upside from current trading levels and serves as the immediate technical objective.
In the fourth quarter, Delta generated $16 billion in revenue with operating profit of $1.5 billion. Full-year 2024 results included revenue of $63.4 billion, operating profit totaling $5.8 billion, and operating cash flow of $14.1 billion.
