Key Takeaways
- Brent crude surpassed $111 per barrel while WTI neared $108, extending a three-day winning streak
- President Trump issued an ultimatum on Truth Social demanding Iran act immediately or face total destruction
- Joint US-Israel military operations against Iran could begin as soon as next week, according to Israeli reports
- Iraqi crude shipments via the Strait of Hormuz collapsed to 10 million barrels in April versus a normal 93 million monthly
- Weekend drone attack targeted UAE’s Barakah nuclear facility, heightening fears about energy infrastructure vulnerability
Crude oil markets extended their rally into a third consecutive session Monday following President Donald Trump’s renewed threats toward Iran, emphasizing that Tehran’s window for negotiating a Strait of Hormuz reopening was rapidly closing.
Brent crude pushed beyond the $111 threshold after posting nearly 8% gains during the previous week. West Texas Intermediate climbed toward the $108 mark.
In a Sunday Truth Social post, Trump declared: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”
Joint Military Operations Under Development
The Times of Israel reported that Washington and Jerusalem are actively developing contingency plans for renewed coordinated military operations against Iranian targets, with execution potentially beginning next week.
“For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!” – President Donald J. Trump pic.twitter.com/33gyF0c0O5
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) May 17, 2026
The President convened with his national security advisors at his Virginia golf property Saturday. Another meeting is scheduled for Tuesday in the White House Situation Room, featuring Vice President JD Vance, Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe.
A senior Israeli official speaking anonymously indicated that military forces are positioning for immediate conflict. “The Americans understand that negotiations with Iran are going nowhere,” the source stated. “We’re preparing for days to weeks of fighting and waiting for Trump’s final decision.”
Zev Elkin, a member of Netanyahu’s security cabinet, acknowledged prepared strike lists. “We have targets that we want to hit,” he revealed during a Kan radio interview.
Hormuz Blockade Tightens Global Supply
Oil has surged over 50% since coordinated US-Israel strikes on Iran commenced in late February. The ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure has severely restricted exports from Persian Gulf oil producers.
Iraqi shipments through the strategic waterway plummeted to merely 10 million barrels during April, representing a dramatic decline from the typical monthly volume of 93 million barrels.
Morgan Stanley analysts warned last week that markets face “a race against time,” cautioning that factors currently capping price increases could collapse if the strait remains impassable through June.
“The risk premium is likely to stay sticky,” stated Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. “Markets have seen plenty of headlines around possible solutions, but no credible mechanism yet that fully removes the Hormuz supply risk.”
Pakistan-mediated talks backed by China have reached an impasse. Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that Washington offered “no tangible concessions” while demanding concessions it couldn’t secure during active hostilities.
According to Fars News, the American delegation presented five demands to Tehran: transfer of 400kg of highly enriched uranium to US custody, restriction to a single operational Iranian nuclear facility, and no unfreezing of Iranian assets.
Nuclear Facility Attack Heightens Regional Concerns
A drone strike targeted an electrical generator adjacent to the UAE’s Barakah nuclear complex Sunday, igniting a fire. Emirati officials confirmed no casualties occurred and radiation containment remained secure.
The Trump administration also allowed a sanctions waiver permitting Russian crude sales to expire, compounding global supply constraints despite India’s extension request.
American intelligence services are examining a potential Iranian cyber operation that manipulated fuel price displays at service stations across several US states, though official attribution remains pending.
