Key Takeaways
- Brent crude settled at $72.42 per barrel while WTI reached $69.27, marking the lowest prices since the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted
- Crude benchmarks have declined for four consecutive trading days, eliminating the majority of war-related risk premiums
- Approximately 20 million barrels per day are now transiting the Strait of Hormuz under naval escort
- Goldman Sachs reports the market is anticipating future oversupply as Persian Gulf exports recover to 63% of pre-conflict capacity
- American crude stockpiles decreased by 6.1 million barrels, reaching the lowest point since January 2025
Global crude markets have retreated to pre-conflict valuations as shipping operations through the Strait of Hormuz stabilize and concerns over supply disruptions diminish.
Brent crude decreased 1.8% to settle at $72.42 per barrel during Thursday’s session. West Texas Intermediate declined 1.5% to close at $69.27. Both benchmark contracts reached their lowest valuations since February 27, one day prior to hostilities commencing.
The previous trading session saw prices plummet nearly 4%. The war-related risk premium that accumulated during the conflict has been almost entirely eliminated.
Persian Gulf Shipping Operations Stabilize
The Strait of Hormuz represents a critical chokepoint for global petroleum trade. Approximately 20% of worldwide oil demand transits through this narrow waterway daily.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright said 20M barrels of crude exited the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours, that’s basically back to full pre-war flow with around 72 tankers moving.
“Iran will not have the ability to close the Strait going forward. We’re taking that leverage… pic.twitter.com/NrG0DwEjyw
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) June 25, 2026
Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicated that throughput volumes at the strait have approached pre-conflict levels. Roughly 20 million barrels departed the waterway over the last 24-hour period, protected by military convoys.
Maritime tracking systems revealed increasing numbers of tankers resuming passage through the strategic channel. Multiple vessels previously anchored in the Persian Gulf have recommenced their journeys.
Market sentiment regarding Iranian petroleum exports contributed additional downward pressure on valuations. Temporary sanctions relief from Washington and declining regional hostilities sparked optimism that Iranian production could return to international markets faster than previously anticipated.
This represents a dramatic turnaround from earlier this year. During the crisis peak, Brent crude surged past $120 per barrel as Hormuz bottlenecks triggered concerns about extended supply shortages.
Goldman Sachs commodity analysts noted the market is “extrapolating the swift recovery of Mideast supply and already pricing expected future surpluses.” The investment bank reported total Persian Gulf petroleum exports have rebounded to 63% of standard operating levels.
Goldman further observed the market is abandoning the notion that forward-dated contracts should incorporate a permanent security risk premium.
American Inventory Figures Present Complex Picture
Weekly petroleum inventory statistics from the United States released Wednesday introduced additional complexity to market dynamics.
Commercial crude reserves declined by 6.1 million barrels during the week concluded June 19, reducing total holdings to 412.1 million barrels. This represents the lowest inventory level since January 2025 and exceeded analyst projections for drawdowns.
Storage facilities at Cushing, Oklahoma—the primary delivery point for WTI futures—also contracted by 1.1 million barrels, falling to levels not seen since 2014.
Conversely, gasoline reserves expanded by 2.1 million barrels. Distillate inventories, encompassing diesel fuel and heating oil, grew by 3.1 million barrels.
Market observers warned the situation remains delicate. Any resurgence of tensions between Washington and Tehran could rapidly reintroduce supply anxieties.
Current pricing suggests the market believes the most severe period of supply disruption has concluded.
