TLDR
- Prediction market Polymarket now shows just 38% odds for CLARITY Act passage in 2026, down 23 points
- GOP Senator Bernie Moreno expects committee markup to occur before May concludes
- Crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital estimates 50% probability of legislative success this year
- Banking lobby requests additional 60-day comment period on stablecoin regulatory framework
- Investment firm TD Cowen identifies five additional hurdles separate from stablecoin interest payment controversy
The United States Senate faces mounting challenges in establishing a clear path forward for the CLARITY Act, legislation addressing cryptocurrency market regulations that successfully navigated the House of Representatives in July 2025. Forward momentum has ground to a halt as traditional banking institutions and digital asset advocates clash, while the legislative calendar offers increasingly limited opportunities for action.
During an April 22 appearance before a Washington, D.C. audience, Senator Bernie Moreno projected that committee markup would occur “by the end of May.” He dismissed banking sector resistance to stablecoin interest payments as “a lot of noise in the system” that is “completely fake.”
Senator Thom Tillis has advocated for Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott to set the markup session for May, acknowledging that negotiating parties require additional time to bridge differences between traditional finance and cryptocurrency interests regarding stablecoin yield provisions.
Digital asset advocates are mounting resistance to further postponements. Senator Cynthia Lummis alongside industry organization The Digital Chamber have called on the Senate Banking Committee to expedite markup scheduling without additional delays.
On Tuesday, the American Bankers Association submitted correspondence to multiple federal agencies including the Treasury Department, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, and the Office of Foreign Assets Control. The letter requested an additional 60-day window for public commentary on regulations connected to the GENIUS Act stablecoin legislation, which received presidential approval in July 2025.
The banking trade group argued that proposed rules from various agencies are substantially dependent on final determinations from Office of the Comptroller of the Currency rulemaking processes, rendering substantive commentary impractical until that regulatory framework reaches completion.
Betting markets have adjusted expectations following the postponements. Polymarket currently reflects 38% probability for CLARITY Act enactment during 2026, representing a 23-point decline. Competing platform Kalshi assigns 14% likelihood before July arrives and 39% probability ahead of August.
The probability of President Trump affixing his signature to the legislation before 2027 has climbed modestly to 58%, increasing from 53% recorded earlier in the week.
What Galaxy Digital Is Saying
Digital asset investment firm Galaxy Digital assessed passage probability for the current year at approximately even odds. Chief Research Officer Alex Thorn highlighted numerous outstanding matters requiring resolution, encompassing stablecoin yield provisions, decentralized finance regulatory language, ethics requirements, and software developer liability protections.
The legislation must still navigate Senate Banking Committee approval, achieve 60 affirmative votes on the Senate floor, and subsequently undergo reconciliation with separate versions originating from the Agriculture Committee and the House of Representatives.
The Senate Calendar Problem
Galaxy Digital observed that the Senate’s operational calendar preceding the August recess offers minimal flexibility. Senators maintain session throughout April, reconvene from May 11 through May 22, and face only three working weeks during both June and July before entering a five-week August break.
Thorn cautioned that should markup proceedings extend beyond mid-May, the probability of achieving passage during the current year diminishes dramatically.
TD Cowen identified five additional complications beyond those already noted: insufficient commissioner appointments at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, unresolved prediction market regulatory frameworks, heightened oversight of Trump-associated entity World Liberty Financial, allegations regarding Iran’s cryptocurrency utilization for Strait of Hormuz transit fees raising money laundering flags, and the Credit Card Competition Act.
Senator Lummis has issued warnings that failure to advance the bill during 2025 could result in the matter remaining dormant until 2030.
