Key Takeaways
- Leading Chinese Bitcoin mining figure Jiang Zhuoer anticipates BTC’s next cyclical bottom arriving between October and December 2026
- The projected price floor sits in the $42,000 to $44,000 range, derived from historical cycle pattern analysis
- His methodology centers on Strategy’s mNAV metric, which has recently declined to 0.72, approaching levels last witnessed in May 2022
- Historical data shows mNAV reached its nadir six months prior to Bitcoin touching its $15,476 price bottom in the previous cycle
- Jiang has disclosed that he’s already liquidated his spot Bitcoin positions and established short positions in anticipation of the predicted downturn
Jiang Zhuoer, a prominent figure in China’s Bitcoin mining community, has released a cycle-driven analysis projecting Bitcoin’s next bear market nadir will arrive somewhere between October and December 2026. His framework suggests BTC will find its floor within the $42,000 to $44,000 price corridor.
The analysis centers on Strategy’s mNAV metric—short for market net asset value. This indicator measures the relationship between Strategy’s share price and the underlying Bitcoin value represented by each equity share.
When the mNAV reading exceeds 1.0, it signals that market participants are willing to pay a premium beyond the underlying Bitcoin holdings. Conversely, readings under 1.0 indicate diminished appetite for the stock relative to its cryptocurrency backing.
According to Jiang’s observations, Strategy’s mNAV has recently contracted to 0.72. He highlights that this level closely mirrors the 0.7 reading recorded on May 11, 2022, which coincided with the onset of the previous major market transition.
Historical Patterns Inform Current Projections
During the prior market cycle, Strategy’s mNAV reached its lowest point in May 2022, when Bitcoin was changing hands around $31,017. The actual cyclical price bottom for Bitcoin arrived approximately six months afterward at $15,476 on November 21, 2022.
Jiang extrapolates this historical six-month delay pattern to the present situation. Operating under the assumption that mNAV is establishing its bottom currently, his analytical framework identifies October 31, 2026, as the probable date for Bitcoin’s price trough, with an estimated value near $44,016.
He candidly acknowledges that while the model demonstrates stronger reliability in timing predictions, its price precision carries more uncertainty. The $42,000 to $44,000 corridor he’s outlined accounts for this margin of error.
Jiang also referenced the de-anchoring phenomenon affecting STRC, noting that the present mNAV configuration could create opportunities for arbitrage strategies involving long MSTR positions paired with short BTC exposures. He positioned this observation as market structure commentary rather than a directional bullish thesis on Bitcoin.
Jiang’s Current Market Positioning
In a social media update on X, Jiang revealed he has already exited his spot Bitcoin holdings and initiated short positions designed for medium and short-term trading horizons. He indicated his intention to resume accumulating spot positions once prices migrate toward his projected bottom territory.
This disclosure arrived during a period of renewed downward pressure on Bitcoin in June, with BTC dropping beneath the $60,000 threshold and catalyzing more than $850 million in liquidations throughout the broader cryptocurrency market.
Strategy’s equity also experienced significant declines during this selloff as market participants retreated from cryptocurrency-correlated stocks.
Jiang’s precise model calculation pinpoints October 31, 2026, as the target date, with an anticipated BTC valuation hovering around $44,016 at that juncture.
