Key Highlights
- Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight rating with $315 price objective for Apple
- Late-2025 AlphaWise survey revealed global iPhone replacement rates reached unprecedented levels
- Chinese market saw upgrade rates jump 9 percentage points compared to prior year
- Apple projected as sole major smartphone manufacturer to expand market share in 2026
- Consumer interest in paying for Apple Intelligence features showed year-over-year decline
Apple experienced upward momentum Monday following Morgan Stanley’s release of data from its late-2025 AlphaWise Global Smartphone Survey, which highlighted exceptional iPhone replacement trends as the company enters 2026.
Shares advanced approximately 1% during premarket hours.
Analyst Erik Woodring, who maintains an Overweight stance on the technology giant, reaffirmed his $315 price objective. The survey results reinforce his perspective that Apple holds a more advantageous position than Wall Street consensus currently anticipates.
Global combined iPhone replacement rates reached 37% in the survey — representing a 2 percentage point increase year-over-year and establishing a new record for the research series. China, a region that has generated investor apprehension, demonstrated upgrade rates climbing 9 percentage points annually, equally achieving survey highs.
Apple stock was hovering near those levels heading into Monday’s session, with the tech giant commanding a market capitalization of $3.64 trillion and trading at a P/E ratio of 31.47.
Conversion rates to Apple devices reached a 5-year peak in the research. Average desired storage capacity expanded 18% year-over-year. Additionally, 27% of surveyed current users expressed interest in a foldable iPhone — a device category Apple has not yet entered.
iPhone Sales Projections Exceed Consensus
Woodring indicated he anticipates Apple will be the sole major global smartphone producer to capture additional market share during 2026, according to survey indicators.
His fiscal 2026 iPhone revenue projection stands 3% above Wall Street consensus, forecasting 6% expansion compared to the Street’s 3% estimate. For fiscal 2027, his outlook exceeds consensus by 4% — which he characterizes as potentially the most robust consecutive two-year iPhone growth period in more than ten years.
Apple reported $435.6 billion in revenue during the trailing twelve months, reflecting 10% expansion.
One Area of Weakness
Not all survey metrics trended positively. Consumer perception regarding Apple Intelligence — the company’s artificial intelligence capabilities — along with willingness to pay premium pricing for these features both decreased compared to the previous year.
Memory component price inflation is also anticipated to drive global smartphone pricing upward, with Android device manufacturers viewed as better positioned to capitalize on this dynamic than Apple.
Additional financial institutions have recently shared perspectives. BofA reduced its Apple price objective to $320 from a previous target, while maintaining a Buy recommendation, referencing expectations surrounding a foldable iPhone introduction in 2026. Bernstein confirmed an Outperform rating with a $340 target, highlighting Apple’s approach of providing a wider spectrum of price tiers to expand market presence.
Apple COO Sabih Khan recently toured the company’s research facility in Shenzhen and engaged with supply chain collaborators — demonstrating ongoing operational emphasis on the Chinese market.
