Key Highlights
- Wall Street analysts forecast prediction market trading volumes will soar to approximately $1 trillion by 2030, compared to $51 billion in 2025
- Leading platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have already processed $60 billion in combined transaction volume in 2026 year-to-date
- Sports betting currently accounts for 62% of all activity, though cryptocurrency and macroeconomic contracts are projected to dominate future growth
- Sector revenues are expected to expand from $400 million in 2025 to $10.8 billion by the decade’s end
- Robinhood (HOOD) stock and Coinbase (COIN) stock identified as primary distribution channels, with ambitious price targets of $130 and $330 respectively
Investment research firm Bernstein has released a comprehensive analysis forecasting that prediction market trading volumes will climb to approximately $1 trillion by decade’s end. This represents an extraordinary expansion from the $51 billion in volume documented during 2025.
The financial services firm anticipates trading volumes will reach approximately $240 billion during 2026 alone. This trajectory suggests an impressive 80% compound annual growth rate extending through 2030.
Major platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have collectively processed $60 billion in transaction volume during the current year to date. This momentum indicates the sector is significantly outpacing previous industry projections.
Research analysts headed by Gautam Chhugani at Bernstein identify two critical growth catalysts. First, enhanced regulatory clarity at the federal government level. Second, distributed ledger technology infrastructure enabling worldwide access and rapid deployment of new prediction contracts.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has established its exclusive regulatory authority over prediction market platforms. Federal regulators are actively developing comprehensive rulebooks as the sector continues expanding.
Sports-related prediction contracts currently represent approximately 62% of total market volume. Reduced effective transaction costs compared to conventional sports wagering platforms have accelerated this market share.
Beyond Sports Betting
[[LINK_START_1]]Bernstein[[LINK_END_1]] projects that sports contracts will decline to roughly 31% of overall volume by 2030. Cryptocurrency-based prediction markets, alongside macroeconomic, political, and business event contracts, are anticipated to emerge as the predominant categories.
The research team anticipates significant institutional adoption for economics, business strategy, and political prediction markets. Enterprise organizations and insurance providers may increasingly utilize these platforms for hedging exposure to event-driven risks.
Regarding revenue projections, the prediction market sector generated approximately $400 million during 2025. Bernstein’s models forecast this will expand to $2.5 billion in 2026, subsequently reaching $10.8 billion by 2030.
Polymarket recently transitioned from its zero-commission business model. The platform now operates at an annualized revenue rate of $420 million.
Robinhood (HOOD) Stock and Coinbase (COIN) Stock as Major Players
Robinhood has established a $350 million annualized revenue stream from prediction markets within twelve months of launching its Kalshi-integrated platform. The brokerage firm is simultaneously developing proprietary exchange infrastructure.
Coinbase entered the prediction market landscape through strategic partnership with Kalshi, providing platform users access to over 1,000 prediction contracts across the United States.
Bernstein maintains outperform ratings on both Robinhood (HOOD) stock and Coinbase (COIN) stock. The firm’s $130 price objective for Robinhood (HOOD) stock suggests approximately 81% appreciation potential from Monday’s closing price. The $330 target for Coinbase (COIN) stock implies roughly 89% upside potential.
Research analysts observed that Robinhood (HOOD) stock has declined approximately 50% since late 2025. They assess that disappointing first quarter performance is already reflected in current valuations, with trading activity expected to rebound during the second quarter.
The investment firm projects Robinhood’s prediction market revenue will grow from roughly $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026. Analysts specifically highlighted the 2026 FIFA World Cup hosted in the United States and congressional midterm elections as significant upcoming volume drivers.
