TLDR
- Seaport Research Partners issued a Sell rating on Qualcomm (QCOM), dropping from Neutral, with a price objective of $100
- Shares have declined 24% year-to-date, currently hovering near $129.82
- The firm projects smartphone unit sales could contract 10%–15% in 2026 driven by elevated memory pricing
- Apple’s transition away from Qualcomm modems appears set to reach completion, with zero content expected in upcoming iPhone releases
- The top five handset manufacturers are increasingly designing proprietary chipsets, reducing reliance on external suppliers
Qualcomm has experienced significant turbulence throughout 2025. Shares have tumbled approximately 24% year-to-date, and fresh analyst commentary from Seaport Research Partners suggests additional declines may be forthcoming.
This week, Seaport initiated a downgrade to Sell from its previous Neutral stance, establishing a $100 price objective that suggests roughly 23% additional downside from present trading levels.
The investment thesis centers on pressure building across the smartphone ecosystem, with Qualcomm positioned at a vulnerable intersection.
Seaport’s Jay Goldberg points to escalating memory component costs as the catalyst forcing device manufacturers into difficult choices. The options are limited: either raise handset prices or reduce memory specifications. Both scenarios extend replacement cycles as consumers delay upgrades.
The research firm anticipates worldwide smartphone shipment volumes declining between 10% and 15% throughout 2026. This represents a substantial contraction in Qualcomm’s core revenue opportunity within mobile application processors.
Apple’s departure from Qualcomm’s modem technology appears nearly complete. According to Seaport’s analysis, Qualcomm’s revenue contribution from iPhone models launching next year will likely reach zero.
While the market has anticipated this shift, the financial impact remains substantial for the chipmaker.
Premium Android Segment Offers Limited Relief
Qualcomm had found relative strength in flagship Android devices recently. However, these premium-tier products face the most acute exposure to memory cost inflation.
This creates compounding challenges for Qualcomm: reduced unit volumes combined with compressed royalty income on remaining sales.
Chinese smartphone brands may shift product mix toward budget-oriented offerings, potentially benefiting competitor MediaTek or forcing Qualcomm into aggressive pricing actions. Industry reports indicate Qualcomm has already reduced pricing on certain SKUs, with Seaport anticipating broader price adjustments ahead.
The competitive landscape continues deteriorating as four of the industry’s five largest handset vendors now pursue internal silicon development. This trend simultaneously attacks Qualcomm’s market share from multiple angles.
Wall Street Consensus Turning Negative
Seaport’s bearish stance follows similar moves from other research shops. Bank of America Securities resumed coverage recently with an Underperform recommendation, highlighting projected revenue and profit growth trailing the semiconductor sector average. BofA emphasized the anticipated $7–8 billion revenue hole from Apple’s exit.
Mizuho shifted to Neutral from Outperform during January, citing headwinds in Qualcomm’s smartphone business foundation.
Bullish voices remain present. Piper Sandler maintains Overweight with a $200 target. Loop Capital elevated the stock to Buy based on diversification opportunities. Wells Fargo upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight, emphasizing Qualcomm’s datacenter initiatives.
Qualcomm exceeded Wall Street estimates in its December quarter report, though March quarter guidance disappointed due to memory supply constraints affecting Chinese customer orders.
Shares traded near $129.99 during Monday’s premarket session, declining approximately 1% from Friday’s close.
