Key Takeaways
- Dan Ives from Wedbush initiated coverage of SpaceX with an Outperform rating and set a price target of $190, assigning a total valuation of $2.5 trillion to the company.
- The analyst’s valuation breakdown includes approximately $1.8 trillion for AI operations and roughly $600 billion for the Starlink division.
- The Starship program represents the company’s greatest potential catalyst and simultaneously its most significant risk factor — with just 12 test missions completed to date.
- Shares of SpaceX have declined approximately 27% from the post-public offering peak of $225.64, currently hovering near $171.
- The company’s shares continue to command a premium valuation at about 115 times trailing twelve-month revenue, while losses are projected to expand this year.
SpaceX (SPCX) stock is currently changing hands around $171, representing a roughly 27% decline from the all-time high of $225.64 reached on June 16, mere days following its June 12 public debut.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Notwithstanding the recent selloff, Wall Street interest continues to accelerate. Approximately 12 sell-side analysts are presently tracking SPCX. Industry watchers anticipate that figure could swell to close to 50 in the coming weeks.
The most recent assessment arrives from Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who initiated research coverage Tuesday evening with an Outperform designation and established a $190 per-share objective.
Ives assigns a comprehensive valuation of $2.5 trillion to SpaceX, employing a segmented valuation approach that separately evaluates the launch operations, Starlink satellite internet service, and artificial intelligence ventures.
His analysis attributes approximately $66 billion in value to the rocket launch segment. The Starlink division, which has surpassed 10 million paying customers and achieved profitability, accounts for roughly $600 billion in his model.
The AI segment commands the lion’s share of Ives’ valuation at $1.8 trillion. His projections indicate the AI unit could deliver over $80 billion in annual revenue by 2028, even before space-based data centers become operational.
Starship: High-Stakes Gamble
Ives doesn’t mince words regarding the company’s primary risk factor. The Starship platform, SpaceX’s revolutionary heavy-lift launch system, aims to slash orbital access costs by 90% relative to the proven Falcon 9 architecture.
This dramatic cost efficiency forms the foundation for virtually every bullish thesis surrounding SpaceX — including advanced Starlink satellites, space-based AI infrastructure, and NASA’s Artemis moon landing system. However, the vehicle has only successfully completed 12 orbital test campaigns. Test flight number 13 is anticipated in the near term.
“The vehicle is the single largest source of value in the franchise as much as its largest risk,” Ives wrote.
Among the dozen analysts currently providing research on SPCX, seven maintain positive ratings. The consensus price objective among this group stands at approximately $240 — substantially above current trading levels.
Premium Multiples Persist
Even following the recent correction, SpaceX commands a market capitalization in the $2.16 to $2.3 trillion range. That represents approximately 115 times its fiscal 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion.
Top-line growth registered 33% year-over-year, with acceleration potentially on the horizon for 2026 as new artificial intelligence contracts materialize, Starlink penetration deepens, and launch service demand increases.
However, the enterprise recorded a net deficit of approximately $4.9 billion in 2025. The AI business unit accounted for the majority of those losses. Given ongoing substantial capital expenditures, red ink is anticipated to deepen throughout 2026.
Ives has established a reputation for aggressive price targets. He maintains coverage of Tesla (TSLA) with a Buy recommendation and a Street-leading $600 price objective.
SpaceX stock advanced 1.8% in Wednesday’s premarket session to $173.95, even as S&P 500 and Dow futures indicated lower opens.
