Key Takeaways
- Bernstein maintains “outperform” rating on AstraZeneca with £186 target price, suggesting approximately 37% potential gain from £135.54 closing level
- The firm projects non-oncology products will account for roughly 65% of AstraZeneca’s forecasted 6% annual growth rate from 2026 through 2031, yet remains undervalued by market
- Analysts forecast 2030 revenues reaching $89.06B, exceeding AstraZeneca’s internal $80B projection by 11% and Bloomberg estimates by 8%
- Wainua drug revenue projection for 2035 stands at $4.80B from Bernstein — nearly triple the $1.80B Bloomberg consensus figure
- Shares advanced 3.1% on June 4, reaching $181.80; insider transactions showed $2.2M in sales during the previous quarter without purchases
Shares of AstraZeneca (AZN) climbed 3.1% during Wednesday’s trading session on June 4, 2026, finishing at $181.80. The pharmaceutical giant’s stock has fluctuated between $134.90 and $212.71 over the past year.
On Friday, Bernstein released research maintaining its “outperform” stance on AstraZeneca shares. The firm held steady with its £186 price objective, representing potential appreciation of approximately 37% from the £135.54 closing level.
The central thesis revolves around a straightforward premise: AstraZeneca’s portfolio beyond cancer treatments remains significantly underappreciated by market participants.
According to Bernstein’s analysis, this non-oncology business is positioned to contribute approximately 65% of the pharmaceutical company’s anticipated 6% compound annual revenue expansion through 2031. Despite this substantial contribution, the research firm notes it continues to receive insufficient recognition “in the investment debate.”
The firm’s revenue projection for 2030 reaches $89.06 billion. This figure exceeds AstraZeneca’s internal risk-adjusted projection of $80 billion by 11% and surpasses the $82 billion Bloomberg consensus by 8%. Every dollar of anticipated revenue growth above consensus estimates from 2027 through 2035 is attributed to non-oncology products.
Wainua Represents Largest Divergence
The most significant variance appears in Wainua, AstraZeneca’s treatment for transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTR). Bernstein’s risk-adjusted projection for 2035 reaches $4.80 billion — representing 170% above the $1.80 billion Bloomberg consensus figure. The company’s own guidance points to non-risk-adjusted peak revenues exceeding $5 billion.
Phase 3 CARDIO-TTransform trial results are anticipated during the latter half of 2026. Dr. Sharon Barr, who leads AstraZeneca’s non-oncology research division, highlighted that ATTR cardiomyopathy diagnosis rates in the United States remain at merely 30% — indicating substantial untapped patient populations.
Additional attention centers on AZD0780, an oral PCSK9 inhibitor targeting elevated cholesterol levels. Company guidance suggests peak revenues surpassing $5 billion; Bloomberg consensus estimates $2.40 billion. Bernstein projects $3.10 billion by 2035.
Dr. Barr emphasized that AZD0780 won’t require fasting protocols — potentially providing competitive advantages versus Merck’s enlicitide decanoate candidate.
COPD Treatment Strengthens Investment Thesis
Tozorakimab, the company’s chronic obstructive pulmonary disease treatment, delivered positive phase 3 headline results on March 27, 2026. Company projections indicate peak revenues between $3 billion and $5 billion, compared with Bloomberg’s $2 billion consensus.
Bernstein’s optimistic scenario envisions 179% growth to 2035 adjusted EBITA. The pessimistic case suggests 101% downside risk.
Currently approved products constitute 55% of the bullish projection. Ultomiris leads this category, with Bernstein’s 2035 estimate of $9.60 billion substantially exceeding the $6.50 billion consensus figure.
Regarding valuation metrics, GuruFocus assigns AZN a GF Score of 83/100. The present P/E ratio of 27.3x trades beneath the five-year median of 34.2x. GF Value calculates fair value at $178.11 — marginally below the $181.80 trading price, indicating modest 2.1% overvaluation.
One noteworthy concern: company insiders disposed of $2.2 million in shares throughout the preceding three-month period, with zero purchase transactions recorded.
Phase 3 CARDIO-TTransform data for Wainua represents the upcoming critical milestone, expected during the second half of 2026.
