Key Takeaways
- Bernstein increased Ryanair’s price target to $78, up from $77, maintaining an Outperform rating
- The airline reported a fiscal Q4 net loss of €396 million, falling short of the €372 million consensus by 6%
- Shares currently trade at $54.89, hovering near the 52-week low of $52.53
- Analysts reduced FY2027 EPS projections by 4.3% while increasing FY2028 estimates by 0.9%
- Bernstein views Ryanair as optimally positioned to capitalize if weaker rivals collapse
Ryanair (RYAAY) delivered a fiscal fourth-quarter net loss of €396 million, falling short of analyst expectations of €372 million by approximately 6%. However, this earnings shortfall didn’t deter Bernstein SocGen Group from maintaining its Outperform rating and modestly raising its price target from $77 to $78.
Currently trading at $54.89, shares are trading dangerously close to the 52-week low of $52.53. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears undervalued when compared to its Fair Value assessment.
The firm has recalibrated its earnings projections going forward. Bernstein decreased its underlying EPS forecast for fiscal 2027 by 4.3%, though it raised the FY2028 projection by 0.9%. The firm also lowered estimates for FY2029 and FY2030, with total revenue projections trimmed across all four fiscal years.
Bernstein didn’t mince words in its assessment. The analysts noted that Ryanair “thrives when there is blood on the floor,” pointing out that the carrier is actively discussing potential competitor bankruptcies while stockpiling cash reserves.
Unlike most competitors, Ryanair maintains a balance sheet with more cash than debt, providing financial maneuverability that rivals currently lack.
Bernstein’s Forward Outlook
The investment firm outlines two potential scenarios. Either fuel prices decline, or the industry experiences capacity adjustments — whether through planned reductions or forced bankruptcies. According to Bernstein, while bankruptcies would create near-term challenges, they would ultimately benefit Ryanair more substantially over the long term.
CEO Michael O’Leary has highlighted potential risks facing carriers such as Wizz Air and Air Baltic if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through November. O’Leary warned that sustained elevated jet fuel prices could force several European airlines into bankruptcy, though Ryanair has protected itself by hedging 80% of its fuel costs.
Notably, O’Leary clarified that Ryanair doesn’t anticipate any jet fuel supply disruptions affecting its European summer operations.
Growing Analyst Confidence
Evercore ISI recently joined the bullish camp, upgrading Ryanair to Outperform and setting a target of $80. This upgrade came after a 15% stock decline and emphasized the company’s robust financial position as a primary rationale.
Bernstein’s Euro-denominated price target remains at €32, where analysts reiterated that the airline represents the “best-positioned name to capitalize in a downturn in point-to-point aviation.”
The stock faced additional headwinds after Easyjet disclosed elevated costs and weakening booking trends, creating broader pressure across the European budget carrier sector.
Despite the fourth-quarter disappointment and reduced near-term forecasts, Bernstein’s investment thesis remains solid: Ryanair possesses the financial strength and strategic positioning to weather industry turbulence that could prove fatal for competitors.
Bernstein maintains its €32 per share price target on the Dublin-listed shares, keeping the Outperform rating following the fiscal 2026 earnings release.
