Key Takeaways
- Former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner expanded his fund’s equity holdings from $5.5B to $13.67B during the first quarter of 2026
- His top investments center on Bitcoin mining companies such as IREN, Core Scientific, Riot Platforms, CleanSpark, and additional industry players
- Investment strategy: AI expansion will face constraints from electricity and real estate availability, not semiconductor supply
- Concurrently established $7.46B in bearish put options targeting Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Cryptocurrency mining operations possess the existing power infrastructure and land assets that artificial intelligence firms desperately require
Leopold Aschenbrenner departed OpenAI during 2024 amid reports of an information security breach. Following his exit, he launched an investment vehicle named Situational Awareness and executed a substantial wager on AI infrastructure — particularly targeting businesses controlling the real estate and electrical capacity essential for AI expansion.
His first quarter 2026 Form 13F submission, processed by the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 18, reveals his fund’s public equity holdings more than doubled. The portfolio value jumped from $5.52 billion at year-end 2025 to $13.67 billion by March 31, 2026.
The Bitcoin Mining Investment Thesis
Aschenbrenner’s fundamental investment premise is straightforward. Artificial intelligence data facilities require enormous quantities of electrical power and land. Bitcoin mining operations possess both resources already. These companies have locked in long-term energy agreements, constructed industrial-scale infrastructure, and established grid connections. Such advantages represent assets that AI corporations cannot duplicate rapidly.
His primary bullish positions concentrate on cryptocurrency mining firms: IREN, Core Scientific, Riot Platforms, CleanSpark, Bitfarms, Bitdeer, and Hive Digital. Additional holdings include Bloom Energy, SanDisk, and cloud infrastructure provider CoreWeave.
The mining companies within his portfolio are actively executing this strategic pivot. Core Scientific, featured among his disclosed investments, has revealed intentions to transform its Pecos facility into a 1.5 gigawatt AI data center complex, redirecting 300 megawatts of current mining operations.
TeraWulf, another sector participant, disclosed that its artificial intelligence and high-performance computing revenue reaching $21 million exceeded its Bitcoin mining income for the first time during Q1 2026. The sector-wide transformation from cryptocurrency mining toward AI infrastructure is actively underway.
Aschenbrenner elaborated this investment philosophy comprehensively in a 165-page research document entitled “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead.” Within this work, he contended that computing infrastructure, rather than algorithm innovation, would establish the timeline for achieving artificial general intelligence.
The Semiconductor Short Position Rationale
Simultaneously, Aschenbrenner initiated $7.46 billion in put option contracts against chip manufacturers and semiconductor-focused investment funds. These positions represent bearish speculation that generates returns when targeted securities decline.
His largest bearish position consisted of a $2.04 billion put contract against the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. Additional positions included a $1.57 billion put targeting Nvidia, a $1.07 billion put against Oracle, and a $1.01 billion put targeting Broadcom.
This strategy aligns directly with his bullish investments. Should the most valuable component of AI infrastructure development prove to be electrical capacity and physical facilities, then semiconductor manufacturers may fail to justify their present market valuations.
This establishes a balanced investment approach. He maintains long positions in enterprises controlling land and electricity. He holds short positions against companies manufacturing processing chips.
The Form 13F disclosure was filed with the SEC on May 15 and officially accepted on May 18. Complete portfolio information is accessible through the Situational Awareness LP 13F tracking page on 13f.info.
