Key Takeaways
- Q1 earnings release scheduled for May 13, with anticipated revenue climbing approximately 578–600% year-over-year to roughly $375–389 million
- Shares have surged more than 120% in 2025 and approximately 554% over the trailing twelve months, hovering near record levels around $196
- A substantial $46 billion contract pipeline underpins growth, featuring a $27 billion Meta partnership and $19.4 billion Microsoft arrangement
- Company completed acquisition of AI technology firm Eigen AI in a $643 million transaction, marking its second deal this quarter
- Analyst consensus leans bullish with 8 of 10 firms recommending Buy; Goldman Sachs sets $205 price objective
Nebius approaches its first-quarter financial disclosure on May 13 with shares positioned near peak valuations and significant attention from the investment community. The stock currently changes hands around $196, a dramatic rise from below $27 twelve months prior.
Wall Street forecasts quarterly revenue in the range of $375–389 million, representing a dramatic year-over-year expansion of approximately 578–600%. Profitability remains elusive for now. Consensus estimates point to a loss of $0.77 per share, widening from the $0.41 deficit recorded in the same quarter of 2025.
While top-line figures draw attention, market participants will scrutinize a more critical question: can Nebius convert its substantial $46 billion order book into tangible operating cash generation?
This pipeline stems from three cornerstone agreements. The largest component is a $27 billion arrangement with Meta, finalized in March. This encompasses $12 billion allocated to dedicated AI infrastructure spanning five years beginning early 2027, plus an additional $15 billion option for expanded capacity. A separate $19.4 billion supply contract with Microsoft and a $2 billion strategic stake from Nvidia complete the framework.
Planned capital outlays for 2026 reach staggering levels — projected between $16 billion and $20 billion. According to management, contractually committed funding will finance approximately 60% of these expenditures. A recently completed $4.34 billion convertible debt issuance provides additional financial flexibility.
For the complete 2026 fiscal period, executives project revenue landing between $3 billion and $3.4 billion. The extended outlook calls for an annualized revenue trajectory of $7–9 billion by year-end 2026, climbing from $1.25 billion at the conclusion of 2025.
A notable highlight from the fourth quarter of 2025: adjusted EBITDA reached positive territory for the first time, registering $15 million compared to a deficit of roughly $64 million in the prior-year period. The AI cloud division delivered an adjusted EBITDA margin of 24%.
The Eigen AI Transaction
Just two weeks ahead of the earnings announcement, Nebius revealed plans to acquire Eigen AI, a compact 20-member startup founded by MIT graduates, in a deal valued at $643 million. The transaction structure includes up to $98 million in cash consideration and 3.8 million Class A shares.
Eigen’s core expertise lies in post-training refinement for open-source language models — including quantization techniques, KV-cache enhancements, and specialized CUDA kernel development. The companies have already collaborated to release optimized implementations of DeepSeek, Llama, and Qwen, achieving inference speeds reaching 911 tokens per second.
This technology will integrate directly into Nebius’ Token Factory offering. The acquisition represents the company’s second strategic purchase within a three-month window, following the $275 million Tavily transaction completed in February. Both deals signal a strategic evolution beyond pure infrastructure provision toward higher-margin platform services.
Analyst Perspectives
Goldman Sachs elevated its price objective to $205 following the Meta announcement, increasing revenue projections for 2027–2030 by 30–54%, while maintaining its Buy recommendation.
Wolfe Research launched coverage with a Neutral stance and established a fair valuation band of $80–$170, acknowledging strong demand dynamics while highlighting execution and capital-raising uncertainties. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated with an Overweight rating and $129 target. Freedom Capital Markets shifted to Hold following a 70% rally from its February call.
Currently, eight of ten covering analysts maintain Buy ratings on NBIS. The average street target stands at $174.33.
Institutional participation registers at just 22% of shares outstanding. Millennium Management established a fresh stake, UBS expanded exposure, and Oppenheimer increased its position by nearly 91% during the fourth quarter.
The earnings conference call commences at 8 a.m. Eastern on May 13.
