Key Takeaways
- Grayscale Research claims Bitcoin reached its cycle low in the $65,000-$70,000 range during February 2026
- On-chain analysis reveals recent purchasers have approached breakeven levels around $74,000
- BTC surged to a 3-month peak of $78,417 following Trump’s US-Iran ceasefire extension
- The Bitcoin Bull Score Index registered its first neutral reading during the current bear cycle
- Prominent researchers including Benjamin Cowen and CryptoQuant forecast additional downside later in 2026
Grayscale Research has made a bold declaration: Bitcoin’s bottom is already in. According to the investment firm, BTC established its cycle low within the $65,000-$70,000 corridor during February 2026. However, this assessment faces substantial pushback from other market analysts.
Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s research director and former Goldman Sachs macro strategist, anchored this conclusion in blockchain metrics. Following a robust 20% rally from its February 5 bottom near $63,000, Bitcoin has brought many recent investors back to their entry points.
Grayscale’s analysis centers on the realized price indicator, which calculates the average acquisition cost of coins based on their most recent blockchain movement. For tokens that transferred between one and three months ago, this realized price hovers around $74,000—marginally beneath Bitcoin’s current trading level.
“Should Bitcoin’s valuation climb higher in the near term, additional recent purchasers would transition into profitable positions, potentially signaling the initial stage of a bull market,” Pandl explained.
Bitcoin reached a three-month zenith of $78,417 on April 22, 2026. This upward momentum coincided with President Donald Trump’s decision to prolong the US-Iran ceasefire, which subsequently drove oil valuations back under $90 per barrel. At press time, BTC was exchanging hands around $77,990, with trading volume expanding 14% over 24 hours.
Sentiment Indicator Shows First Neutral Signal
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s research director, observed that the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has registered neutral territory for the first time throughout this bearish phase. While noteworthy, Moreno cautioned that a similar occurrence in March 2022 preceded continued price deterioration.
Derivatives markets also exhibited optimistic signals. Aggregate BTC futures open interest expanded nearly 6% to $59.53 billion within 24 hours. CME open interest grew approximately 1%, while Binance experienced a 6% surge.
10x Research highlighted that April’s spot Bitcoin ETF capital flows demonstrate bullish characteristics, despite persistent negative funding rates and subdued volumes. The research firm additionally noted that institutional buying patterns are emerging earlier in this cycle compared to the previous two recovery periods.
Contrarian Views Predict Further Downside
Grayscale’s optimistic stance hasn’t achieved universal acceptance. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and former NASA scientist, shared with BeInCrypto that his primary scenario places the cycle bottom in October 2026. He emphasized that an earlier low would require extreme capitulation exceeding typical mid-term year patterns.
“While Bitcoin might establish its bottom earlier, potentially as soon as May, achieving that outcome would necessitate severe capitulation significantly below historical midterm year expectations,” Cowen stated.
Joao Wedson, CEO of blockchain analytics platform Alphractal, anticipates a trough arriving in late September or early October 2026. CryptoQuant has identified a wider timeframe spanning June through December 2026, with September to November representing the highest probability window.
Bitcoin has also penetrated above analyst Benjamin Cowen’s bear-market resistance zone on weekly timeframes. This technical level has previously indicated significant inflection points for the cryptocurrency.
