TLDR
- Top-ranked UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri increased Nvidia’s price target from $235 to $245 ahead of February 25 Q4 earnings report.
- The analyst projects Q4 revenue at $67.5 billion, exceeding Nvidia’s guidance by approximately $2.5 billion on strong AI demand.
- Q1 revenue forecast stands at $76 billion, above the $74-75 billion range most investors currently anticipate.
- China sales remain unpredictable as local firms adopt domestic chips, though potential orders could add billions to quarterly results.
- Arcuri expects Nvidia to preserve 75% gross margins despite emerging competition from Google and Broadcom AI processors.
Timothy Arcuri of UBS lifted his Nvidia price target to $245 from $235 while maintaining a Buy rating. The adjustment comes less than two weeks before Nvidia reports Q4 fiscal 2026 results.
The analyst holds a fifth-place ranking among more than 12,000 professionals tracked on TipRanks. His success rate stands at 77% with average returns of 41.4% per rating.
Nvidia will release earnings on February 25. The stock has climbed 45% over the past twelve months but has traded sideways in recent weeks.
Revenue Estimates Crush Guidance
Arcuri now expects Q4 revenue to hit roughly $67.5 billion. That figure beats Nvidia’s official guidance by about $2.5 billion.
The analyst also forecasts approximately $76 billion for the April quarter. Most Wall Street observers expect guidance between $74 billion and $75 billion.
Supply chain data continues to signal strength across the semiconductor sector. Arcuri believes the setup heading into earnings looks positive.
Nvidia’s annual GTC developer conference happens next month. The March event typically serves as a major platform for product announcements.
Uncertainty Around China and Margins
Chinese sales represent a question mark for future quarters. Companies in China are shifting toward locally manufactured GPU chips.
Still, Arcuri suggests additional China orders could contribute several billion dollars. UBS predicts Nvidia might leave China out of its formal revenue guidance.
Margin sustainability has become a hot topic among investors. Tech giants like Google and Broadcom are building proprietary AI chips.
The analyst doesn’t see immediate threats to Nvidia’s 75% gross margin target. Company executives will probably discuss competitive dynamics during the earnings call and at the GTC conference.
Strong Consensus Among Analysts
Nvidia currently carries a market value of $4.65 trillion. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 47.47.
Revenue grew 65.22% during the past year. Wall Street assigns a Strong Buy consensus rating to shares.
Analyst sentiment breaks down to 37 Buy recommendations, one Hold, and one Sell. The average price target reaches $260.38, indicating 37% potential upside.
UBS believes consistent AI infrastructure spending and transparent guidance will lift investor confidence. The firm remains optimistic about Nvidia’s positioning in the artificial intelligence market heading into the late February earnings announcement.
