TLDR
- Independent research from Citrini Research presented a 2028 scenario in which AI agents circumvent traditional card networks, threatening Visa’s fee structure.
- Shares of Visa slid 4.5% during Monday’s trading, ending the day at $306.52, while dragging down Mastercard and American Express.
- Mastercard shares declined 5.7% and American Express dropped 7.2% during the same trading session.
- In early Tuesday premarket trading, Visa ticked up 0.2% to $307.09, recovering slightly from the prior day’s losses.
- An unresolved $38 billion swipe fee settlement with merchants continues to loom over the company, creating additional uncertainty.
Shares of Visa Inc. experienced significant downward pressure Monday following the publication of research suggesting artificial intelligence could eventually redirect payment transactions away from established card networks.
The steep decline erased approximately 4.5% of Visa’s market value during Monday’s session, with shares closing at $306.52. The stock began trading at $319.04 and touched an intraday low of $304.71 before finishing near session lows.
The trigger for the selloff was a Substack publication from Citrini Research, an independent research firm, released over the weekend. The analysis presented itself as “a scenario, not a prediction” — constructing a hypothetical financial outlook dated June 30, 2028.
Within this speculative scenario, U.S. unemployment had surged past 10% while the S&P 500 had retreated 38% from its high point. According to Citrini’s framework, widespread AI-driven displacement of white-collar workers drove the downturn.
The research specifically identified Visa as potentially exposed to disruption. The core thesis suggested that AI-powered agents operating on consumers’ behalf might identify and utilize lower-cost payment channels, threatening Visa’s 2%-3% network and processing fee revenue stream.
The analysis mentioned stablecoins as one possible alternative payment infrastructure — a system that could operate independently of conventional card networks.
An important clarification: Visa doesn’t directly receive interchange fees. Those payments flow to the banks that issue cards. Visa generates revenue from network and processing fees, which require maintaining robust transaction volumes and healthy cross-border payment activity.
The market reaction extended beyond Visa. Mastercard shares fell 5.7%, while American Express declined 7.2% during the same trading day. Both Visa and American Express ranked among the Dow’s worst performers, based on MarketWatch reporting.
Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, characterized the market response: “You’ve seen the market react to headlines, it’s ‘sell first, assess later.'”
Payment Sector Faces Broader AI Disruption Questions
The widespread decline among payment stocks illustrated growing concerns about business models that operate as intermediaries — extracting fees from each transaction that passes through their systems.
Market participants are debating whether Monday’s decline represents an isolated event or signals the beginning of a fundamental reassessment of these fee-based business models.
Pending Merchant Settlement Creates Additional Uncertainty
Beyond the AI concerns, Visa confronts ongoing legal uncertainty. Last November, Visa and Mastercard proposed a restructured $38 billion settlement agreement with merchants regarding swipe fees. The settlement remains subject to judicial approval.
Merchant organizations argue the proposed settlement is inadequate. Stephanie Martz, general counsel for the National Retail Federation, stated: “You can’t just suddenly tell more than 80% of your card customers you’re not going to take their cards.”
During Tuesday’s premarket session, Visa showed modest improvement — gaining 0.2% to reach $307.09, recovering a small portion of the previous day’s decline.
On the calendar, Chief Product and Strategy Officer Jack Forestell is expected to participate in Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 3. Additionally, Commercial & Money Movement Solutions President Chris Newkirk will present at the Wolfe Research FinTech Forum on March 11.
