TLDR
- USDC commands 64% of adjusted transaction volume market share, surpassing USDT in year-to-date metrics, per Mizuho analysis
- First instance of USDC volume leadership since 2019
- Tether maintains market capitalization supremacy with $184 billion versus USDC’s $79 billion
- Circle stock price target elevated from $100 to $120 by Mizuho
- Transaction volume viewed as superior indicator for long-term stablecoin dominance versus market cap, according to Mizuho analysts
Tether’s USDT has been dethroned in adjusted transaction volume by Circle’s USDC on a year-to-date basis, according to research published Friday, March 13, by Japanese financial institution Mizuho.
The development represents the first occasion USDC has claimed volume supremacy since 2019, bringing an end to several years of USDT’s leadership in this metric.
Mizuho’s data analysis indicates USDC generated approximately $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume year-to-date, while USDT recorded $1.3 trillion during the identical timeframe.
This performance translates to USDC controlling 64% of the combined adjusted volume between these two leading stablecoins, based on Mizuho’s calculations.
The financial institution characterized “adjusted volume” as transactions involving centralized trading platforms, decentralized exchanges, and other identified entities—or participants who haven’t exceeded specific activity parameters. Essentially, these represent transfers appearing to involve genuine individuals or organizations conducting actual financial transactions.
The analysts cited specific use cases including corporate vendor payments, wagers placed on prediction platforms such as Polymarket, and capital transfers between centralized exchanges and DeFi applications.
What the Volume Shift Means
Mizuho’s research team emphasized that transaction volume data carries greater predictive value than market capitalization when forecasting long-term stablecoin market leadership.
“We believe that longer term, the stablecoin winner will be the one mostly used in everyday economic activity, rather than just the highest market cap,” Mizuho wrote.
Despite this volume reversal, USDT continues dominating in total market capitalization metrics. Tether’s offering maintains approximately $184 billion in market cap, substantially exceeding USDC’s $79 billion valuation.
Circle completed its public listing on the New York Stock Exchange in June 2025. The company’s equity showed minimal reaction immediately following the Mizuho research publication.
The investment bank simultaneously elevated its Circle stock price target from $100 to $120 within the same analytical report.
Circle Stock and the Regulatory Backdrop
Meanwhile in the nation’s capital, proposed legislation that could fundamentally reshape the stablecoin landscape remains gridlocked.
The CLARITY Act successfully cleared the House of Representatives but has encountered obstacles in the Senate. Contentious discussions surrounding stablecoin yield distribution, ethical guidelines, and tokenized securities have impeded legislative advancement.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated Thursday that the Senate would advance voting requirements legislation ahead of digital asset market structure frameworks. He projected the market structure bill would not pass before April.
This legislative uncertainty compounds the ambiguous regulatory environment surrounding stablecoins as Circle’s equity continues public trading on the NYSE.
According to Mizuho’s March 13, 2026 research publication, USDC now controls 64% of adjusted volume between the two dominant stablecoins, representing its first leadership position in this category since 2019.
