Key Takeaways
- Shares of Tesla have declined approximately 20% since the start of the year, marking six consecutive weeks of losses as of March 30.
- Analysts anticipate Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries around 366,000 units, representing growth from 337,000 in the same quarter last year.
- Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO, has committed to launching volume Cybercab production during April.
- The company anticipates receiving supervised FSD authorization in the Netherlands this April, potentially unlocking wider European market access.
- Earnings expectations for Q1 stand at 41 cents per share, marking an increase from the 27 cents reported in Q1 2025.
Tesla (TSLA) stock opened Monday’s session at $364.42, posting a 0.7% gain despite carrying a year-to-date loss of approximately 20%.
Shares edged higher on Monday morning following a difficult period marked by six straight weeks of declining prices. Friday’s trading session saw a 2.8% drop, capping off another weekly loss of roughly 1.7% and extending the six-week downturn to approximately 13%.
Interestingly, this extended sell-off commenced the same week Tesla delivered Q4 2025 results that exceeded analyst expectations. The electric vehicle manufacturer reported 50 cents in earnings per share, surpassing the Street’s 43-cent forecast. However, this still represented a significant decline from the 73 cents earned during Q4 2024, leaving market participants eager for signs of renewed expansion.
That opportunity arrives this Thursday when Tesla releases its Q1 2026 delivery figures ahead of the Good Friday market closure.
Analyst consensus points to approximately 366,000 vehicle deliveries during the quarter, representing an increase from the prior year’s 337,000 units. UBS disrupted consensus expectations in mid-March with a more conservative estimate of just 345,000 deliveries — falling short of the typical 365,000 analyst projection. Meanwhile, prediction markets on Polymarket suggest a 62% probability that actual deliveries will fall beneath the 350,000 threshold.
The company delivered 336,681 vehicles in Q1 2025. A convincing beat of this benchmark would indicate that the sales deceleration experienced during the first half of last year — linked to the Model Y refresh transition — has successfully concluded.
Robotaxi Vehicle Production Set to Begin
Beyond quarterly delivery figures, market watchers are closely monitoring progress on Tesla’s autonomous taxi initiative. Musk has publicly committed to commencing volume Cybercab manufacturing in April.
The complication: Tesla currently lacks the necessary regulatory clearances for Cybercab deployment. Ramping up production without these approvals creates potential risks around capital allocation and inventory management. Nevertheless, initiating the manufacturing process mitigates execution concerns and maintains investor attention on the robotaxi opportunity.
Tesla introduced its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas last June, with plans to broaden into additional metropolitan areas throughout the first half of 2026. Las Vegas has emerged as a likely candidate for the next market launch.
European Full Self-Driving Expansion
Tesla also anticipates securing supervised full self-driving (FSD) authorization in the Netherlands during April. The Netherlands Vehicle Authority has confirmed both parties are “currently completing the final steps of the assessment process.”
Securing Dutch approval could establish a framework for expanded EU market penetration — whether through comprehensive bloc-wide authorization or sequential country-specific approvals. Tesla has experienced market share erosion throughout Europe, and introducing FSD capabilities there could strengthen the competitive standing of its vehicle lineup across the region.
Beyond delivery metrics, Cybercab developments, and European FSD authorization, Tesla is expected to introduce the third-generation iteration of its Optimus humanoid robot within the coming weeks and may potentially showcase the long-anticipated Roadster.
Wall Street projects Q1 2026 earnings of 41 cents per share, up from 27 cents in the corresponding quarter of 2025. Market participants will likely need to wait for the earnings conference call — scheduled approximately three weeks following the delivery announcement — to obtain more comprehensive details regarding robotaxi expansion plans and the Optimus development timeline.
