TLDR
- Tesla stock advanced 1.5% to $417.32 Monday, building on Friday’s 3.5% gain after testing $390 support twice
- CEO claims over 500 robotaxis operate in Austin and San Francisco with monthly doubling projected through December
- Longtime VP Raj Jegannathan exits as Tesla shifts resources from Model S/X production to Optimus robot manufacturing
- Analysts maintain cautious stance with 40% Buy ratings while stock trades at 200+ times forward earnings multiples
- Tesla commits $20 billion capex but Wall Street forecasts zero free cash flow generation through 2027
Tesla shares climbed 1.5% Monday to $417.32, extending Friday’s 3.5% recovery. The stock appears to have established a floor near $390 after testing that level twice.
Shares tumbled nearly 8% before Friday’s bounce. The stock has drifted about 5% lower since reporting fourth-quarter results on January 28.
The $390 level previously provided support in November. Technical traders are watching to see if this price point can launch a sustained rally.
Elon Musk provided fresh details on robotaxi operations during the earnings call. He said more than 500 vehicles now transport paying customers in Austin and San Francisco.
Musk’s Timeline Under Question
The CEO projected monthly fleet doubling through year-end. He expects robotaxis operating in up to half the country by December if regulators approve.
Independent verification paints a different picture. Robotaxi Tracker data shows just four of Tesla’s 58 Austin vehicles run completely unsupervised.
Musk’s track record on timelines raises doubts. He predicted 1 million robotaxis by 2020 during a 2019 announcement. That target never materialized.
He recently posted that robotaxi and Optimus production would move at an “agonizingly slow” pace. The admission contradicts his optimistic public projections.
Safety data and crash rates need improvement before regulatory expansion. Cybercab production won’t launch until April at the earliest.
These dedicated two-seat vehicles lack steering wheels entirely. Tesla sees them as key to scaling robotaxi operations beyond current levels.
The company is halting Model S and X production completely. That manufacturing capacity will shift to Optimus humanoid robot assembly instead.
Financial Picture Raises Concerns
Tesla announced $20 billion in capital expenditures for 2026. That’s more than double the previous year’s spending.
Analysts project no free cash flow generation in 2026 or 2027. The massive spending spree and uncertain revenue timing create a cash crunch.
Wall Street remains divided on the stock. Only 40% of covering analysts rate shares as Buy.
That compares poorly to the 55% average Buy rating across S&P 500 components. Analyst price targets average just $420, barely above current prices.
The valuation multiples look stretched. Shares trade at over 200 times projected forward earnings.
Executive Suite Sees Departure
Raj Jegannathan announced his exit Monday after 13 years. The vice president most recently managed IT, AI infrastructure, business applications and information security.
He previously ran North American sales operations after Troy Jones departed. Tesla recorded its first annual revenue decline in 2025, dropping 3%.
The company battles several headwinds simultaneously. Product lineup aging continues while consumer sentiment suffers from Musk’s political activities.
His prominent role in the Trump administration and support for far-right movements internationally have sparked customer boycotts. Sales data reflects this brand damage in key markets.
SpaceX changed course from Mars to moon missions for 2026. Musk had previously dismissed lunar missions as a “distraction” from Mars goals.
Tesla owns a minority stake in SpaceX through xAI investment connections. The strategy shift demonstrates Musk’s willingness to pivot from stated objectives.
The stock needs a major catalyst to break higher. Potential triggers include robotaxi launches in additional cities or unveiling the third-generation Optimus design.
Shares finished Monday at $417.32 while the broader S&P 500 index gained 0.5%.
