TLDR
- Tempus AI launched HRD-RNA, an RNA-based algorithm to spot cancer patients likely to respond to platinum-based chemo or PARP inhibitors
- The 1,660-gene model reads gene expression in real time rather than detecting DNA “genomic scars” that can linger after drug resistance sets in
- Validation data showed HRD-RNA positive pancreatic cancer patients had lower mortality on platinum-based treatment
- Robert W. Baird upgraded TEM to Strong Buy; consensus target is $84.64 across 14 analysts
- CEO Eric Lefkofsky sold $10.9M in shares in January; total insider selling hit ~$48.6M over 90 days
Tempus AI shares climbed roughly 9% Tuesday after the company unveiled HRD-RNA, an AI-powered algorithm built to identify cancer patients who are most likely to benefit from platinum-based chemotherapy or PARP inhibitors.
The tool uses a 1,660-gene logistic regression model that reads RNA gene expression rather than scanning for structural DNA damage. That distinction matters. Most existing HRD tests look for genomic scars — damage patterns that can stick around even after a tumor has stopped responding to treatment, which can produce misleading results.
Tempus says the RNA approach gives a real-time snapshot of tumor biology instead.
A validation study showed that metastatic pancreatic cancer patients flagged as HRD-RNA positive had lower mortality risk when treated with first-line platinum-based regimens. Full study data is set for publication later in 2026.
HRD-RNA is currently available for research use only, with clinical availability expected later this year.
Analyst Upgrade Adds Fuel
Robert W. Baird upgraded TEM to Strong Buy on Tuesday, adding to an already positive analyst picture. The consensus sits at “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $84.64 — roughly 61% above Tuesday’s opening price of $52.56.
The breakdown: one Strong Buy, six Buys, six Holds, one Sell. Morgan Stanley holds an Overweight rating with an $85 target. Needham has a Buy and a $100 target. Piper Sandler and Canaccord both sit at $80, with Neutral and Buy ratings respectively.
TEM’s 50-day moving average is $63.26 and the 200-day is $73.60. The 52-week range runs from $36.22 to $104.32.
Insider Selling Contrasts the Bullish Tone
Not everyone is leaning in. CEO Eric Lefkofsky sold 166,250 shares on January 28 at $65.56 per share, pocketing around $10.9 million. Over the past 90 days, insiders have collectively sold 710,438 shares worth approximately $48.6 million. Insiders still own 26.27% of the company.
On the institutional side, Mirae Asset Global Investments grew its position by 1,459.8% in Q3, while Renaissance Capital added 26.9% to its holdings.
Tempus posted roughly $316 million in application revenue for full-year 2025, up 31% year-over-year. Its Insights segment grew 38%. The company also holds a record total contract value of over $1.1 billion as of December 31, 2025.
Earnings are scheduled for February 24.
