Key Takeaways
- Jefferies elevated SolarEdge from Underperform to Hold while increasing its price objective from $30 to $49
- TTF gas prices in Europe have jumped approximately 94% following recent geopolitical tensions
- During the previous energy crisis, SolarEdge’s European sales expanded from $630M in 2020 to $1.9B in 2023
- The investment firm boosted its 2027 and 2028 revenue projections by 17% and 19% respectively
- SEDG shares have surged roughly 60% year-to-date and are approaching their 52-week peak of $48.60
SolarEdge (SEDG) shares advanced approximately 4% during Friday’s premarket session following an analyst upgrade and increased price forecast from Jefferies.
SolarEdge Technologies, Inc., SEDG
The rating revision elevates SEDG from Underperform to Hold status. Jefferies increased its price objective from $30 to $49 — representing approximately 7.3% potential upside from Thursday’s closing price.
Jefferies’ primary thesis centers on energy market volatility. The TTF benchmark for European natural gas has skyrocketed roughly 94% since the onset of the latest Middle Eastern conflict. Such dramatic price increases historically drive consumers and enterprises toward solar energy and storage solutions as hedges against unstable energy expenses.
This phenomenon has precedent. During 2022, when Russian natural gas supply interruptions caused European energy costs to spike, solar installations accelerated significantly. SolarEdge‘s revenue from European operations soared from $630 million in 2020 to $1.9 billion by 2023.
Jefferies cautions against expecting an identical trajectory this time. Renewable energy infrastructure has matured considerably across Europe, and electricity prices have remained comparatively steady despite rising gas costs. Any forthcoming demand recovery is anticipated to be more gradual.
Nevertheless, the investment firm believes SolarEdge enters this period from a stronger foundation. Inventory adjustments that previously pressured financial performance have largely concluded, and SEDG has expanded its presence in commercial and industrial segments while maintaining residential market dominance.
Updated Financial Projections
Jefferies elevated its revenue forecasts for 2027 by 17% and for 2028 by 19%. The 2026 projection remained essentially flat, with the firm acknowledging ongoing customer hesitation amid prevailing macroeconomic uncertainties.
Despite the improved rating, Jefferies refrained from recommending a Buy. Valuation concerns remain central. SEDG has rallied approximately 60% during 2026 thus far and currently trades around 18x projected 2027 EV/EBITDA — marginally above peer comparables. Jefferies suggests the market has already incorporated expectations for enhanced demand and increased market penetration.
The wider analyst consensus leans bearish. Among 25 analysts tracking SEDG, only one maintains a Buy rating, while 18 recommend Hold and six advise Sell. The MarketBeat consensus rating stands at “Reduce” with an average price target of $29.09 — significantly below current trading levels.
Latest Quarterly Performance
SolarEdge’s latest quarterly results exceeded analyst projections. The company delivered EPS of -$0.14, surpassing the consensus estimate of -$0.19. Revenue reached $333.8 million compared to anticipated $330.3 million, marking a 70.9% year-over-year increase.
Net margin remains in negative territory at -34.23%, with analysts forecasting full-year EPS of -$4.54 for the current fiscal period.
Institutional investors control approximately 95% of outstanding shares. Multiple major stakeholders expanded their holdings during recent quarters, notably UBS Group, which increased its position by 234.8% in Q3.
SEDG commenced Friday trading at $45.66, marginally below its 52-week high of $48.60.
