TLDR
- Fiscal Q2 2026 earnings from Costco scheduled for March 5, 2026
- Year-to-date gains of 13.6% for COST stock after approximately 6% decline in 2025
- Street expectations point to $4.55 earnings per share versus $4.02 last year, with $69.25 billion in projected revenue
- Strong Buy rating consensus from Wall Street with $1,081.57 mean price target
- Forward price-to-earnings ratio of 49.6 for COST significantly exceeds sector mean of 18.9
Costco Wholesale is approaching its fiscal Q2 earnings announcement scheduled for March 5 with considerable positive momentum.
Following a roughly 6% decline throughout 2025, shares of COST have staged an impressive comeback — climbing 13.6% year-to-date in 2026. This type of rebound naturally attracts significant attention from market analysts.
Costco Wholesale Corporation, COST
Wall Street expects the wholesale retailer to deliver $4.55 in earnings per share during Q2, representing growth from the $4.02 reported in last year’s comparable quarter. Total revenue projections stand at $69.25 billion, marking a 10% year-over-year expansion.
Recent sales figures heading into the earnings report have shown positive trends. The company posted approximately $21 billion in net sales for January, reflecting 9.3% growth compared to the prior year period.
Across the first 22 weeks of the current fiscal year, total sales increased 8.5% on a year-over-year basis. Comparable store sales have demonstrated consistent growth throughout different geographic markets.
The e-commerce channel has emerged as a particularly strong performer. Online sales have expanded at double-digit percentage rates, though any deceleration in this segment could trigger investor concern.
Membership trends represent another critical metric worth monitoring. Expanding membership rolls — partially fueled by inflationary pressures driving consumers toward value-oriented retailers — have provided consistent support. The company’s proprietary Kirkland Signature brand remains a key driver of customer loyalty and competitive positioning.
Analyst Views
Bank of America’s Christopher Nardone reaffirmed his Buy recommendation on COST before the earnings release and established a $1,185 price objective. His thesis emphasizes Costco’s broad demographic appeal — maintaining strength with affluent shoppers while its value proposition simultaneously attracts budget-conscious customers.
Citi analyst Steven Zaccone adopted a more reserved position, keeping his Hold rating while modestly lifting his target from $990 to $1,000.
The broader Wall Street view reflects a Strong Buy consensus, supported by 19 Buy recommendations, four Hold ratings, and a single Sell rating. The mean price objective of $1,081.57 suggests approximately 7% appreciation potential from present levels. The Street’s most bullish forecast reaches $1,205, implying nearly 20% upside.
The Valuation Question
Costco’s decade-long total return of 662% has delivered more than twice the S&P 500’s performance. Revenue has expanded at a 9.3% compound annual growth rate across the past five years, with uninterrupted growth throughout that period.
This exceptional performance history commands a premium price. COST currently carries a forward P/E ratio of 49.6, substantially above the 18.9 sector average. On a trailing basis, the multiple reaches 53.6 — roughly 15% higher than Nvidia’s valuation.
For certain market participants, this premium appears excessive. Any disappointment in comparable sales metrics or weaker-than-expected membership expansion could trigger sharp downside.
First quarter 2026 net sales reached $66 billion. The retailer’s operational scale — purchasing massive volumes across a curated product selection — provides substantial supplier negotiating leverage and enables aggressive customer pricing.
