Key Takeaways
- Needham reduced HOOD price target from $100 down to $90 while retaining Buy recommendation
- Compass Point lowered forecast from $127 to $108, maintaining Buy stance
- March data revealed declining momentum in equity, options, and cryptocurrency trading activity
- Shares have tumbled 52% in the last half-year and declined 38% since January
- Company’s banking segment has accumulated over $1.5 billion in customer deposits
The popular trading platform has encountered significant headwinds this week as several Wall Street firms lowered their outlook following disappointing March performance data.
On Wednesday, Needham’s John Todaro reduced his price objective from $100 down to $90, though he maintained his Buy recommendation. His analysis highlighted deceleration across virtually all business segments.
“We view HOOD as leading the charge among financial services platforms toward becoming a comprehensive financial super app, but the latest volume figures and decreased net interest revenue indicate a more subdued operating environment,” Todaro noted in his research.
The company’s March metrics, published March 30, revealed equity notional volumes around $196 billion. Options contract activity reached 187 million, while cryptocurrency notional volumes registered $16 billion.
Todaro adjusted his equity and options projections downward for Q1 2026 while maintaining cryptocurrency volume expectations unchanged, noting that crypto-related declines had already been incorporated into previous models. He also lowered revenue projections for both 2026 and 2027, attributing the changes to anticipated decreases in trading activity and net interest income.
His revised $90 price objective reflects 27 times Needham’s adjusted fiscal 2027 EV/EBITDA calculation.
This adjustment came one day after Wolfe Research’s Steven Chubak slashed his target from $115 to $81 — representing approximately a 30% reduction. His downgrade stemmed from declining crypto transaction revenues combined with broader cryptocurrency market weakness.
Additional Pressure from Compass Point
Compass Point’s Ed Engel similarly decreased his price target Wednesday, moving from $127 to $108 while preserving his Buy rating. His financial models project Q1 revenue falling 9% short of consensus expectations, with underperformance across all three core business units.
Engel observed that retail trading activity typically weakens following five to six consecutive months of volatile market conditions, noting that most retail-popular equities have declined since early October.
He compared the current situation to April 2025, when Wall Street firms reduced forecasts ahead of Liberation Day. Engel suggested that any market rebound could position Robinhood as a major beneficiary considering the anticipated 2026 IPO pipeline.
HOOD shares have plummeted 52% during the previous six months and trade 46% beneath their 52-week peak of $153.86. The equity currently trades at a P/E multiple of 34.14 with a market capitalization of $63.1 billion. According to InvestingPro, the stock appears overvalued at present price levels.
Banking Segment Provides Encouraging Signal
Despite trading headwinds, not all indicators point downward. Robinhood’s banking operation has surpassed $1.5 billion in total deposits, supporting nearly 100,000 funded accounts — representing approximately 50% deposit growth over the recent measurement period.
Bernstein SocGen Group decreased its price target from $160 to $130 while maintaining an Outperform rating. The firm continues forecasting 25% earnings per share expansion through 2026 and a 30% revenue compound annual growth rate spanning 2025 through 2027.
Jefferies launched coverage with a Buy rating and $88 price objective, highlighting opportunities from expanding global retail engagement and the platform’s comprehensive product offerings.
According to TipRanks, HOOD carries a Strong Buy consensus rating derived from 15 Buy recommendations and 2 Hold ratings, with an average price target of $117.33 — suggesting approximately 67% potential upside from present levels. The most optimistic price target among analysts reaches $147.
Complete first-quarter earnings results are scheduled for release in May.
