TLDR
- Robinhood (HOOD) stock collapsed 35% year-to-date with a 30% drop in five days driven by Bitcoin’s sharp decline affecting crypto stocks.
- February 10 earnings report expected to show $0.62-$0.63 EPS and 30% revenue growth to $1.32-$1.35 billion despite lower year-over-year profits.
- Forecasts point to net interest revenues up 46.1%, options revenue rising 42%, but cryptocurrency revenues down 19.8% year-over-year.
- Strong Buy rating from Wall Street with 14 Buy and 4 Hold ratings projecting average price target of $154.93 representing 113% upside.
- Assets under custody expected to double to $355.93 billion while funded customers grow to 27.12 million from 25.20 million.
Robinhood stock has fallen to its lowest level of 2026 with quarterly results just days away. The selling pressure has intensified recently.
HOOD shares are down 35% year-to-date as the company prepares to report fourth-quarter earnings on February 10. Over the past five days alone, the stock has dropped approximately 30% following Bitcoin’s steep decline that hurt crypto-exposed companies.
Wall Street analysts project earnings of $0.62 to $0.63 per share for the quarter. This compares to $1.01 per share in the same period last year. Revenue is expected to climb 30% year-over-year to between $1.32 billion and $1.35 billion.
The earnings estimate has been revised 5% higher over the past month. Analysts have grown more optimistic about the quarter even as the stock price has fallen.
Revenue Growth Across Multiple Channels
Net interest revenues are forecast at $432.57 million, up 46.1% from the prior-year quarter. Transaction-based revenues should total $809.88 million, representing 20.5% year-over-year growth.
Cryptocurrency revenues face headwinds. Analysts expect crypto transaction revenues to fall 19.8% to $287.06 million. This weakness mirrors the recent Bitcoin sell-off that accelerated HOOD’s decline.
Options trading continues to perform well. Revenue from options is projected to jump 42% to $315.34 million. Equities trading revenue is expected to rise 42.3% to $86.83 million.
Other revenue streams show strong momentum. Securities lending revenue is forecast to more than double to $55.77 million. Margin interest revenue should surge 100.5% to $182.45 million.
User Growth and Platform Assets
Funded customers are expected to reach 27.12 million versus 25.20 million in the year-ago quarter. Investors will watch whether customer acquisition is maintaining pace or slowing down.
Assets under custody are projected to nearly double to $355.93 billion from $192.90 billion last year. This figure demonstrates how much capital users are trusting with the platform.
The company delivered strong performance during the first nine months of 2025. Higher market volatility boosted trading activity across stocks, options, and other asset classes.
Wall Street Maintains Bullish Outlook
Analysts hold a Strong Buy consensus on HOOD with 14 Buy ratings and 4 Hold ratings issued over the past three months. The average price target of $154.93 implies 113% upside from current levels.
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani keeps his Buy rating with a 120% upside target. He notes the stock is approaching attractive valuations though near-term volatility could provide better entry points.
Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley maintains his Buy rating with over 100% upside potential. He considers Robinhood one of the best ways to play long-term retail trading growth.
Over the past month, HOOD has fallen 31.1% while the S&P 500 gained 0.5%. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating.
Thursday’s earnings call will focus on user growth trends, management’s 2025 guidance, and outlook for crypto markets. Trading demand commentary and updates on new product launches will also drive investor sentiment. The company’s expanding revenue base beyond cryptocurrency should provide more stability even if digital asset prices remain under pressure.
