TLDR
- Rivian stock skyrocketed 28% Friday in its biggest single-day rally ever following strong Q4 earnings and positive 2026 outlook
- Q4 revenue hit $1.29 billion with a $0.70 loss per share, beating estimates, while the company posted its second consecutive quarterly gross profit
- The R2 SUV is confirmed for Q2 2026 deliveries, targeting a broader customer base at a lower price point than current models
- 2026 delivery guidance of 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles represents a 50% jump from 2025’s 42,000 units
- Deutsche Bank upgraded to Buy with a $23 target while UBS moved to Neutral with a $16 target
Rivian delivered its best trading day ever on Friday. The stock surged 28% after reporting fourth-quarter results that crushed expectations.
The EV maker posted $1.29 billion in revenue and a $0.70 loss per share. Both figures beat Wall Street forecasts. More importantly, Rivian recorded gross profit of $120 million for the second quarter in a row.
But investors zeroed in on what’s ahead. The company confirmed its affordable R2 SUV will reach customers in the second quarter of 2026. That timeline didn’t slip.
CEO RJ Scaringe called the R2 launch a “key inflection” moment. The vehicle targets mainstream buyers, not just premium customers willing to pay top dollar for the R1T truck or R1S SUV.
Delivery Growth Takes Priority
Rivian guided 2026 deliveries between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles. That’s up roughly 50% from the 42,000 units delivered in 2025.
The projection matters because delivery volume drives everything else. Higher production means lower per-unit costs. Lower costs mean narrower losses. Narrower losses lead to eventual profitability.
Q4 deliveries fell to 9,745 vehicles from 14,183 a year earlier. The drop reflected industry-wide pain after the federal $7,500 EV tax credit expired in September. U.S. EV sales plunged 36% year over year in the fourth quarter.
Despite the headwinds, Rivian showed cost discipline. The company generated gross profit while also pulling in revenue from software and services through its Volkswagen partnership. That diversified income stream signals progress beyond just selling cars.
Analysts Flip Bullish
Wall Street reacted fast. Deutsche Bank upgraded Rivian to Buy from Hold and hiked its price target to $23 from $16. Analyst Edison Yu cited confidence in the product pipeline and 2026 guidance.
UBS moved to Neutral from Sell with a $16 target, up from $15. Analyst Joseph Spak said the risk-reward now looks more balanced at current levels.
Wedbush maintained its Outperform rating with a $25 price target. Analyst Dan Ives emphasized the R2 launch as “crucial” for the company’s future trajectory.
The upgrades reflect shifting sentiment. Rivian still posted a $804 million net loss in Q4, better than the $1 billion Wall Street expected. But profitability remains distant.
The company projects adjusted EBITDA losses between $1.8 billion and $2.1 billion in 2026. Capital spending will hit around $2 billion as Rivian prepares factories for R2 production.
Rivian ended Q4 with $6.7 billion in cash and investments. Analysts estimate the company will burn through $3.5 billion in 2026. That provides runway, but execution is everything now.
The R2 rollout will determine whether Rivian can scale production and narrow losses. Early production ramps need to go smoothly. Missing the 62,000 to 67,000 delivery target would hurt investor confidence.
Cash burn and margin improvement will be watched closely. Two consecutive quarters of gross profit is encouraging. Sustaining that trend requires volume growth and continued cost control.
Analyst ratings remain mixed overall. Seven recommend Buy, four say Hold, and five rate it Sell. The average price target of $17.75 implies 26.8% upside potential. Rivian closed Friday at $17.73 while the S&P 500 and Dow both gained about 0.1%.
