Key Takeaways
- Fourth quarter 2025 revenue dropped 17.6% year-over-year, landing at $1.87 million versus the $2.33 million analyst consensus
- Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh lowered his price target to $43 from $50 while retaining a Buy rating, pointing to 142% potential upside
- The company demonstrated 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity with 28-nanosecond speeds, possibly 3–5x faster than rival technologies
- Cash reserves stand at approximately $590 million, with an $8.4 million contract secured from India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing
- Development roadmap aims for 150+ physical qubits by December 2026 and exceeding 1,000 by late 2027
Rigetti Computing delivered disappointing fourth-quarter revenue results, yet the company’s technological achievements paint a more optimistic picture. Here’s the breakdown.
Revenue for Q4 2025 totaled $1.87 million, representing a 17.6% decline compared to the year-ago period and falling short of the Street’s $2.33 million projection. The previous quarter delivered $2.3 million, highlighting a notable sequential decline.
Gross margin compression was evident as well, declining to 35% from the prior year’s 44%. Management pointed to contract composition as the primary driver rather than fundamental business challenges.
Operating losses expanded to $22.6 million during the quarter, compared with $18.5 million in the year-earlier period. Operating expenses climbed to $23.2 million from $19.5 million, primarily fueled by increased research and development investments.
The company recorded a per-share loss of $0.03, matching analyst expectations.
Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh adjusted his price target downward from $50 to $43, representing a 14% reduction. Despite this adjustment, he maintained his Buy recommendation.
At the $43 level, Rakesh’s target suggests approximately 142% upside from present trading prices. His valuation methodology applies roughly 9x to projected revenue 30 months forward, based on the assumption that Rigetti captures 10% of the quantum computing addressable market.
First Quarter Guidance and Contract Pipeline
Rakesh projects Q1 2026 revenue will reach $3 million — representing a 62% sequential increase and 106% year-over-year growth. This anticipated surge is primarily driven by Rigetti’s $5.7 million contract for Novera quantum processors.
Additionally, the company plans to ship its inaugural Cepheus-1 108-qubit system to India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing during the latter half of 2026, an agreement valued at $8.4 million.
Rigetti’s balance sheet shows approximately $590 million in cash, providing sufficient resources to advance its technology roadmap without near-term capital requirements.
Technological Milestones
From a hardware perspective, Rigetti demonstrated 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity utilizing a novel adiabatic CZ methodology at 28 nanoseconds. According to the company, this performance could be 3 to 5 times faster than alternative approaches.
The company has successfully deployed both an 84-qubit monolithic chip architecture and a 36-qubit chiplet-based configuration to cloud platforms.
Rigetti manages Fab One, characterized as the quantum computing sector’s first purpose-built and vertically integrated device fabrication facility.
Strategic collaborations include working with Riverlane on error correction capabilities and Nvidia for quantum processor integration with GPUs and CPUs through NVLink, leveraging CUDA-Q software for hybrid computing architectures.
The company’s development timeline targets exceeding 150 physical qubits by December 2026 and surpassing 1,000 qubits by year-end 2027. Management estimates quantum advantage remains approximately three years from realization.
According to TipRanks data, RGTI carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating derived from five Buy recommendations and two Hold ratings. The mean analyst price target stands at $37.60, suggesting approximately 111.7% upside potential from current price levels.
RGTI stock has climbed more than 117% over the trailing twelve-month period.
