Key Takeaways
- Rigetti Computing unveils Q4 FY2025 financial results post-market on March 4, 2026.
- Wall Street forecasts a $0.03 per-share loss alongside $2.33 million in revenue.
- RGTI shares have declined over 21% in 2026 but climbed 9.4% during the previous week.
- IonQ’s impressive Q4 performance boosted optimism throughout the quantum computing space, benefiting RGTI.
- Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs) represent the critical forward-looking indicator for future growth.
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) will unveil its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 financial performance following Wednesday’s market close on March 4. The timing comes during a challenging period — shares have tumbled more than 21% since the start of the year, though recent sessions have brought modest relief.
Shares advanced 9.4% during the five trading days through March 1, outperforming both the S&P 500’s 0.4% decline and the Nasdaq’s 1% drop. The rally wasn’t driven by Rigetti-specific news, however.
IonQ unveiled its Q4 performance on February 25, delivering a non-GAAP loss of $0.20 per share alongside revenue of $61.89 million. Wall Street had projected a $0.23 per-share loss with revenue of only $40.38 million. The substantial beat triggered positive momentum throughout the sector.
IonQ’s full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $225 million to $245 million significantly exceeded the Street’s $192.6 million consensus estimate. Such upward revisions frequently generate sector-wide enthusiasm, and Rigetti benefited from the spillover effect.
Attention now shifts to Rigetti’s own report.
Analysts project a $0.03 per-share loss for Q4, representing improvement from the $0.08 per-share loss recorded in the year-ago period. Revenue is anticipated at $2.33 million, marking approximately 2.6% year-over-year growth. While these figures appear modest, the trend trajectory remains significant.
Why RPOs Matter More Than Quarterly Revenue
For pre-profitability companies like Rigetti, Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs) serve as a more meaningful indicator than quarterly sales figures. RPOs quantify contracted business awaiting fulfillment — effectively providing visibility into secured future revenue streams.
Rigetti’s RPO figures experienced weakness early in 2025 before rebounding. Market participants will scrutinize whether this upward momentum persists or loses steam.
These obligations encompass contracts for quantum processing hardware, cloud platform access, and associated services. For a business investing aggressively in research and development, this metric reveals whether clients are making substantial, multi-year commitments.
Hardware Timeline Questions Persist
Hardware delivery schedules have emerged as an investor concern. Rigetti pushed back the introduction of its 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system to late Q1 FY2026.
The company previously pledged to ship a 100+ qubit chiplet-based quantum system achieving 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity by year-end 2025. Whether this milestone was achieved — or its current status — will likely surface during the earnings conference call.
Wall Street maintains cautiously optimistic expectations entering the report. According to TipRanks, RGTI holds a Moderate Buy consensus based on five Buy recommendations and two Hold ratings. The average analyst price target stands at $38.75, suggesting potential upside exceeding 120% from current levels near $17.52.
The 52-week trading range spans $6.86 to $58.15, positioning today’s price approximately midway between those extremes. Significant gains from recent peaks have evaporated.
Rigetti’s Q4 earnings announcement is slated for after trading concludes on March 4, 2026.
