Key Takeaways
- NVDA retreated 0.2%–0.5% on Thursday, settling near $181.75 following Wednesday’s 2.2% surge
- Shares have remained confined within a $165–$195 trading corridor for several months
- Technical analysts identify $185 as a pivotal resistance point; clearing $200 could signal sustained upside
- Wednesday’s rally stemmed from a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire, though durability concerns linger
- Critical downside support sits at $170; breaching this threshold could drive shares toward $150
Nvidia’s shares have entered a prolonged consolidation phase. Once the undisputed leader of the AI-driven equity surge, NVDA has languished in a narrow trading channel between $165 and $195 since September 2025, with market participants searching for a definitive catalyst.
Recent price action suggests momentum may be building. The chipmaker notched gains across six consecutive trading sessions—marking over 10% appreciation and its longest winning run since October—before encountering resistance on Thursday.
Wednesday’s 2.2% advance followed President Trump’s announcement of a temporary two-week ceasefire with Iran, which reopened the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz and alleviated fears of broader economic disruption. Nvidia ranked among the top contributors to S&P 500 gains during that session.
Thursday’s session painted a contrasting picture. Shares slipped approximately 0.5% to $181.75 as market participants questioned the ceasefire’s sustainability. The broader S&P 500 index remained essentially unchanged.
Geopolitical tensions continue to influence market sentiment. Iran retains the capacity to impose blockades on the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining an element of uncertainty among traders.
Beneath these near-term fluctuations lies a more fundamental question: will technology giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon achieve meaningful returns on their substantial AI infrastructure investments? This uncertainty has capped NVDA’s upside potential throughout recent months.
Ishan Majumdar, founder of Baptista Research, commented to Barron’s that core AI demand fundamentals remain solid. “Nothing about the cease-fire alters the structural AI demand story,” he noted. “If anything, removing macro volatility allows the market to refocus on those fundamentals.”
$185 Emerges as Critical Resistance
Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, emphasizes the significance of the $185 price point. “If Nvidia sustains above $185, I would say the money is ready to run back in,” he explained. “The long-term trend remains positive.”
Buff Dormeier at Kingsview Partners believes a higher threshold may be necessary. According to Dormeier, NVDA must breach $200 to establish a convincing bullish trajectory. “If we started to get a signal of that, we could easily be back to the races,” he stated.
Dormeier also highlighted improving valuation metrics. NVDA currently trades at approximately 20 times forward earnings—significantly beneath its historical 10-year average multiple of roughly 36—and now aligns with the broader S&P 500. This represents a meaningful departure for a stock that historically commanded a substantial premium.
Downside Scenarios Remain in Play
Both technical analysts emphasize potential downside vulnerabilities. The $170 price level represents crucial support. Should shares decline and close beneath this threshold again, additional selling pressure could materialize.
“If we were to break under there, I think shares could fall down to $150,” Dormeier cautioned.
Krinsky reinforced this perspective. “It doesn’t strike me as an all-clear that we recovered the $170 level so quickly,” he observed. “If it moves back to that level and closes under it again, that would be a more telling signal that Nvidia is likely to continue lower.”
Currently, Dormeier frames the near-term trading range with support at $165 and resistance at $180. NVDA settled Wednesday at $182 and traded around $181.75 during Thursday’s session.
