TLDR
- NVDA stock trades at $184.98, down 1.8% over past month despite strong AI demand
- China paused H200 chip orders while evaluating domestic alternatives, creating uncertainty
- Nvidia holds 2 million H200 orders worth $54 billion across global customers
- Wall Street forecasts 50% revenue growth in 2026 driven by Rubin chip launch
- Stock valued at 34 times forward earnings with AI market expanding through 2030
Nvidia stock finished Friday at $184.98, essentially flat after declining 1.8% over the past month. The world’s largest company by market cap faces mixed signals.
CES announcements failed to spark investor interest. Robotics and autonomous driving news didn’t provide the catalyst traders wanted.
But demand tells a different story. Analysts at Truist Securities noted strong AI spending across all customer segments. Management teams at CES emphasized robust purchasing from hyperscalers, neoclouds, and sovereign buyers.
Nvidia secured orders for over 2 million H200 chips at $27,000 each. That’s roughly $54 billion in potential revenue sitting in the pipeline.
CEO Jensen Huang said H200 demand is “very high” during CES. He doesn’t anticipate problems with Chinese regulators.
Beijing Creates Short-Term Headwind
Chinese authorities asked technology companies to pause H200 orders. Beijing wants to assess how many domestic chips should be purchased alongside Nvidia products, Reuters reported.
The pause comes despite Nvidia gaining approval to resume China sales in 2026. The company couldn’t sell in China since April 2025.
China’s AI chip market rivals the United States in size. Any resolution could unlock the stock’s next move higher.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reports Thursday. As Nvidia’s primary supplier, TSMC earnings will offer insight into broader chip demand. Early sales data looked strong.
2026 Growth Story Intact
Wall Street expects 50% revenue growth from Nvidia in 2026. The Rubin chip architecture launching this year supports that projection.
Rubin uses 800-volt power systems instead of current infrastructure. Nvidia sells components required for the upgrade beyond just processors.
Existing Blackwell chips are completely sold out. That validates continued hunger for Nvidia’s AI hardware.
The stock trades at 47 times trailing earnings. With 62% year-over-year revenue growth last quarter, that multiple looks reasonable. Forward earnings show a 34 times multiple based on 2026 projections.
Nvidia sits at $4.6 trillion in market capitalization. The AI computing market is forecast to expand through 2030 minimum.
Data center construction continues at breakneck pace. Nvidia captures the largest share of this infrastructure spending as the dominant GPU provider.
The company maintains technical leadership in AI chips. Few competitors can match performance or ecosystem strength. That positioning should protect margins and market share as the sector grows.
