Key Takeaways
- Nvidia’s Q4 FY26 earnings arrive February 25, with Wall Street projecting 68% revenue expansion to $66.1 billion.
- Wedbush maintains Buy rating with $230 target, highlighting Nvidia’s “dominant share position” in AI semiconductors.
- Analyst consensus remains Strong Buy, with average target of $265.07 — suggesting approximately 39% upside potential.
- Key headwinds include hyperscaler competition, TSMC capacity limitations, and potential AI spending deceleration.
- Year-to-date 2026, NVDA shares have climbed only ~2% following a 40%+ rally in 2025.
The tech industry’s attention turns to Nvidia as the company prepares to unveil fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on February 25.
Wall Street analysts are forecasting adjusted earnings of $1.54 per share, representing more than 70% growth compared to $0.89 in the year-ago period. Revenue projections point to a 68% year-over-year increase, reaching $66.1 billion.
Wedbush’s Matt Bryson maintained his Buy recommendation before the earnings release, setting a $230 price objective. This target suggests approximately 20% appreciation from current trading levels.
Bryson highlighted Nvidia’s dependable supply chain as a significant competitive advantage and anticipates the company will exceed consensus estimates while providing above-consensus forward guidance.
His projections include 66% year-over-year revenue growth for the complete fiscal 2026, with the Data Center segment alone anticipated to produce nearly $191 billion. This division experienced 142% year-over-year expansion to $115.2 billion during FY25.
Truist Securities similarly maintained its Buy stance with a $275 price objective. The firm anticipates Q4 revenue of $66.07 billion and earnings per share of $1.53, aligning with Street consensus.
Truist emphasized ongoing strength in AI infrastructure demand, noting cloud service providers continue adjusting spending projections upward. Book-to-bill metrics are also showing improvement industry-wide.
Looking to Q1 FY27, consensus estimates call for $72.7 billion in revenue — representing 60% year-over-year growth.
Competitive Pressures Intensifying
The outlook isn’t entirely rosy. Major cloud providers are increasingly developing proprietary AI processors, presenting a long-term challenge to Nvidia’s market dominance.
Google has become a significant competitor, reportedly negotiating to provide Meta — among Nvidia’s biggest clients — with its internally developed TPU processors. AMD is also preparing to launch a new flagship AI server platform this year.
Nvidia secured a licensing agreement with Groq, valued at approximately $20 billion, which analysts believe reinforces its AI inference capabilities.
Last week, Nvidia also finalized an agreement to deliver millions of chips to Meta, although financial details weren’t revealed.
Manufacturing Capacity and China Opportunities
The primary growth limitation may stem from supply rather than demand. Nvidia and competitors are vying for limited capacity on TSMC’s 3-nanometer production facilities, potentially restricting shipment velocity.
“We think Nvidia will meet expectations, but it is hard to see them delivering much upside in light of TSMC capacity,” wrote Jay Goldberg of Seaport Research Partners.
One potential catalyst: the China market. CEO Jensen Huang indicated last month his optimism about resuming H200 chip sales there, with export authorization reportedly nearing completion. AMD has already secured licenses for shipping modified processors to China.
NVDA shares have advanced just 2.7% in 2026 thus far, marking a substantial deceleration following last year’s 40%+ surge. Market sentiment has been impacted by ASIC competition concerns, data center financing questions, and earlier DeepSeek-related volatility.
The Wall Street consensus stands at Strong Buy — with 32 Buy ratings against one Sell. The mean price target of $265.07 implies approximately 39% upside potential.
